Millions of Ukrainian refugees in the European Union may be at risk of losing their legal status, as governments do not have a clear plan to allow refugees to remain in the EU after the end of Russia's war against Ukraine, UNN reports, citing Euractiv.
Details
Since Russia's invasion in February 2022, the EU's Temporary Protection Directive (TPD) has been a legal lifeline for nearly 4.3 million Ukrainians. It allows EU countries to grant Ukrainians the right to reside, work and access services. Most of these people have settled in Poland, Germany, the Czech Republic and Slovakia.
But as ceasefire talks continue, this system may cease to function.
Recent surveys suggest that the number of refugees planning to return to Ukraine is decreasing. Data from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) shows that the proportion of Ukrainians planning to return home has fallen to 65% in 2024 from 77% in 2023.
The proportion of those who are undecided rose to 24% in 2024 from 18%, and the number of those who have no hope of returning more than doubled - to 11% from 5%.
A ceasefire could change this situation. Host countries will have to decide whether to roll back the refugee program, insist on integration, or push refugees to return home.
In the European Union leadership, whose work is often paralysed by migration debates, any EU-level decisions aimed at extending temporary protection are likely to be politically dangerous.
EU Temporary Protection Directive
The directive, dubbed the "sleeping beauty" of the EU asylum system, had not been used since its adoption in 2001 - until Russia's full-scale invasion led to its first ever application.
Last year, EU governments agreed to extend the TPD until March 2026, going far beyond the original framework, which provided for a two-year period of protection for refugees with a possible one-year extension.
According to Yasmin Slootjes, Deputy Director of the European Institute for Migration Policy, there may be "new extensions" in the future.
However, while the directive offers protection, its temporary nature creates problems for Ukrainian refugees.
If you only have legal status for one year, it becomes very difficult to conclude a long-term rental agreement. Also, employers are less likely to offer you a contract
Levels of protection also vary across countries. Each EU country interprets the directive slightly differently in its national legislation. This means that Ukrainians are treated differently depending on where they have settled.
The Commission said it had started looking at the next steps, including "whether or not" to continue temporary protection, helping people switch to national status for work, study or family reunification, and supporting those who choose to return to Ukraine.
Czech centre-right Interior Minister Vit Rakusan confirmed that the Czech Republic, together with Germany, is actively involved in shaping a common response during the Polish presidency.
The Czech Council of the Interior is due to consider the matter at its next meeting in June.
Any decision to terminate temporary protection would require the agreement of all EU member states, added Hana Mala, a spokeswoman for the Czech Interior Ministry. She stressed that a common EU position is likely to be reached in the first half of this year.
Addendum
According to a study by the Centre for Economic Strategy, if two years ago 74% of refugees expressed their intention to return, today this figure has fallen to 43%.
The reason is not only the duration of the war, but also the lack of clarity about the future of Ukraine. Ukrainians are concerned about the possibility of a new attack by the terrorist country, and the prospect of a frozen conflict without integration into NATO and the EU is causing scepticism.