The Russian economy is entering the final phase of 2025 with a sharp deterioration in corporate performance, a rise in defaults by state structures, and a deepening crisis in entire sectors, UNN reports, citing the Foreign Intelligence Service.
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According to intelligence data, the accumulated net financial result of organizations in January-September fell by 7.7% year-on-year, signaling a rapid depletion of business resilience under pressure from budget constraints, the sanctions environment, and expanding military spending.
The profitability of companies is rapidly declining: the total losses of Russian organizations over nine months increased by almost a quarter year-on-year, reaching 6.52 trillion rubles. 18.4 thousand enterprises went into the red – 11% more than last year. This surge is largely explained by the disruption of payment discipline by state corporations: they form the main demand in a number of basic industries, but in 2025 they became the main source of financial gaps.
Since the beginning of the year, regulators have opened 1,173 administrative cases regarding non-payments within the framework of public procurement – this is already 20% more than for the entire year 2024 (980). Small businesses are experiencing a particularly sharp deterioration: the number of complaints about state companies failing to fulfill contractual obligations has increased 2.5 times – from 200 appeals for 1.5 billion rubles last year to 482 appeals for 3.6 billion rubles as of November. For many enterprises, this means a loss of working capital and forced cessation of activities, the intelligence service added.
The coal industry remains a critical hotbed of problems. The share of unprofitable enterprises in the sector jumped to 68.1% in January-September, compared to 52% a year earlier. Cumulative losses reached 309.2 billion rubles, and in the last month alone, they increased by another 46 billion rubles. The weakness of the production block is already reflected in the consumer market. Food inflation reached 7.97% year-on-year, while individual items show a sharp price acceleration: cucumbers rose in price by 24.07% since the beginning of November alone, tomatoes – by 8.54%. The 13.26% increase in gasoline compared to 2024 reinforces inflationary pressure throughout the supply chain.
The automotive industry, which previously served as an indicator of investment demand, also shows a collapse: passenger car production in October fell by 46.7%. Such a deep fall indicates not only the weakness of the domestic market but also limited access to technologies and components.
The combination of these factors forms a picture of systemic economic imbalance. Business losses are growing faster than the government can compensate for losses with budget injections. In 2025, the Russian economy is increasingly demonstrating structural cracks that are becoming difficult to mask even with military demand.