Statements about labor shortages in Ukraine are increasingly being heard in the public space. At the same time, ideas for attracting labor migrants are being promoted as one of the solutions to the problem. However, not all experts agree with this approach.
Ihor Garbaruk, a member of the Economic Discussion Club, spoke in an interview with UNN about whether Ukraine really lacks workers, what risks the import of labor carries, and how to restore demographics.
"We don't even know how they calculated these 2 million"
The expert suggests starting the issue of personnel shortage with the basics – the lack of clear analytics. According to him, there is no specificity in public statements - neither by industry, nor by scenario, nor by goal, but there is a figure – 2 million.
I don't see an explanation of the methodology for these calculations, which specific industries are meant, and what the purpose of these estimates is. Without this, talking about a 2-million deficit looks more like manipulation than serious analytics
He adds that under war conditions, the economy has changed cardinally, and applying pre-war approaches to the current situation is incorrect.
"10 million left – demand fell"
One of the key factors that, according to the expert, is ignored in the discussion is the large-scale migration of Ukrainians. This is not only a labor market issue but also a demand issue.
If, hypothetically, 8–10 million people have left, they are not consuming in Ukraine. They don't buy housing, don't use services, and don't create internal demand. Consequently, the economy does not need the same number of workers as before
According to international organizations, Ukrainian refugees are actively integrating into EU labor markets, and their employment rate in some countries already exceeds 50–60%, which means the loss of a significant part of the workforce for the Ukrainian economy.
"This benefits businesses that want cheap labor"
The expert speaks plainly: economic interests often stand behind the ideas of importing labor migrants. It is about the desire to reduce costs rather than strategic development.
Part of the business community simply wants to make their labor cheaper. Instead of investing in technology, raising wages, and creating decent working conditions, they are looking for cheap workers
In his opinion, this is short-term thinking that does not solve systemic problems.
"Ukraine needs technology, not cheap hands"
Garbaruk is convinced that the future of the economy lies in automation. He cites examples of global companies where physical labor has already been replaced by technology.
Look at the logistics of large corporations – robots work there, not people. Amazon is an example. Why should we bring in people for conventional 'grunt work' if machinery can do it?
He adds that focusing on technology will not only increase efficiency but also create higher-quality jobs. According to global analysts, automation and robotization already allow for reducing the need for low-skilled labor by 30–40% in several sectors, including logistics and manufacturing.
"Migrants won't come to build the country during a war"
Separately, the expert dwells on the topic of labor migration. He emphasizes that high-skilled specialists do not go to a country where a war is ongoing.
Let's be honest - the best engineers or scientists from Bangladesh or Pakistan won't come to Ukraine right now. People looking for any opportunity to earn money will come. For them, it's just a territory
He emphasizes the difference between the concepts of "homeland" and "territory" as key to understanding this problem.
"We risk creating social tension"
Another aspect is security and social issues. After the war, Ukraine will face a major challenge in adapting veterans.
Our military personnel are returning from the front after severe trials. And if we simultaneously create a situation with mass migration, it could lead to conflicts and tension in society
He emphasizes that such risks cannot be ignored.
"If migrants want to work – let them defend the country first"
Separately, the expert voices a tough position regarding the possible involvement of foreigners. In his opinion, those who want to work in Ukraine should first prove their commitment to the country through its defense; he also adds that this is not even just his opinion – but that of some military personnel.
If we are talking about people coming to Ukraine, the question arises - why should Ukrainians fight and give their lives while someone else comes just to work? If a person wants to live and work here - they must understand this country, and you can only understand it through defense
At the same time, he specifically emphasizes that he respects foreigners who are already fighting for Ukraine.
I have great respect for those who came to defend Ukraine – both those who did it out of ideological convictions and those who came under contract. They risk their lives just like Ukrainians, and that deserves respect
"Europe is already changing – and this is also a signal for Ukraine"
Garbaruk draws attention to the European experience, which, in his opinion, should not be blindly copied.
We see how Europe is changing. In many cities, it is already difficult to find native Europeans. This is a reality, and it is a problem
He adds that Ukraine finds itself in a unique situation - on one hand, war and crisis, on the other, a chance to draw the right conclusions.
We are currently in a catastrophic yet unique situation. We can become the first country to draw conclusions and not repeat others' mistakes
"South Korea is an example of how not to do it"
Separately, Garbaruk mentions the demographic crisis in other countries, particularly in South Korea.
South Korea is an example of how strategic mistakes made decades ago lead to a country simply dying out
At the same time, the expert emphasizes that the situation in Ukraine, despite the war, is not hopeless.
We have a difficult situation, but it is not as catastrophic as in some Asian countries, despite the war. And this means we can still change it
"Ukraine must bring its people back"
Garbaruk calls the return of Ukrainians the main alternative to labor imports. But for this, appropriate conditions must be created.
We must make it so that Ukrainians want to return. Jobs, wages, security, social guarantees – these are basic things
He emphasizes that today Ukrainians are effectively working for the economies of other countries.
"Birth rate is a matter of stability"
A separate block of the conversation concerns demographics. The expert emphasizes that no programs will work without basic predictability of life.
People will have children only when they understand that tomorrow they have a job, housing, and healthcare. Without this, no incentives will help
He also draws attention to the global trend of falling birth rates but believes that Ukraine can find its own path.
Municipal housing and mobility as a solution
Among specific tools, Garbaruk mentions the development of municipal housing. This, in his opinion, will allow people to move to where the jobs are.
If a person knows that there is a job and affordable housing in another city, they will go. If half the salary has to be paid for rent – they won't do it
Such an approach, according to him, can revitalize the internal economy.
"Quality of population is more important than quantity"
Garbaruk supports the thesis that not only the number of people is important for Ukraine, but their quality. He cites Israel as an example of a state where civic identity plays a key role.
When there is a threat, Israeli citizens return from all over the world. That is how our system should work too
"Youth must take responsibility"
In conclusion, the expert speaks about the role of the younger generation. He believes that they are the ones who should shape the new state.
The state is not someone abstract. It is the younger generation. In 10 years, they could be the ones making decisions
At the same time, he acknowledges the problem of distrust in the state but is convinced that it can be overcome through participation and responsibility.
"We must build our own country, not others'"
Summarizing, the expert emphasizes: Ukraine must invest in its own people rather than look for quick fixes.
We must build our economy, our country, and create conditions for our citizens. And then there will be no need for any migrants
According to him, the main task is not just restoration, but the creation of a new, modern model of the state.
Reminder
Foreign workers are already appearing in regional centers of Ukraine . In particular, this was reported by the authorities of Cherkasy and Ivano-Frankivsk.