Ukraine is strengthening its border with Transnistria amid potential risks, but the actual capabilities of the Russian contingent in the region remain limited. At the same time, in the event of an escalation, the situation may develop in a way that is not at all in favor of the unrecognized entity. Military expert Oleksandr Kovalenko told UNN about this in a commentary.
Is Transnistria capable of attacking Ukraine?
Information about the strengthening of defenses on the border with Transnistria has sparked a new wave of discussions regarding possible escalation scenarios. However, from a military point of view, the potential of this direction is significantly limited.
The expert emphasizes that the key factor is not so much the capabilities as the political decision.
Everything will depend on what order they receive. But if we talk about real capabilities, there are not enough forces and assets on the territory of Transnistria for a large-scale operation. They are not capable of creating a full-fledged buffer zone or conducting serious offensive actions
According to him, the maximum this grouping is capable of is local provocations.
We could be talking about attempts to enter border villages, to "gnaw out" small pieces of territory. But this poses no threat either to Odesa or to the entire Odesa region. These are tactical actions without a strategic result
Attack scenario – how it will end for the PMR
Even limited aggression from this direction will have critical consequences for Transnistria. In such a case, Ukraine receives the full right to respond.
The expert directly calls such a scenario suicidal for the unrecognized entity.
If they take such a step, it will be a suicidal decision. This is effectively a death sentence for the so-called PMR. Because Ukraine's response will be inevitable, and this story could end with the complete destruction of this entity
He emphasizes that even short-term successes will not change the overall result.
Yes, they can temporarily enter some settlements. But the question is different – how it will end for them. And it will end very quickly and very badly for them
How quickly Ukraine can take Transnistria
In a hypothetical scenario, if we consider exclusively the military component without political restrictions, an operation against Transnistria does not look difficult.
The expert assesses it as fast and technically clear.
For our troops, this is a simple task. And it's not even a matter of two or three weeks – it's much faster. Transnistria has a specific geography – it is an elongated territory that can be conventionally cut into segments and gradually cleared
In addition, Ukraine has a practical interest in such a development of events.
This would create an additional security zone for us. We would completely remove the risks from this direction and would no longer feel a threat from the territory of Transnistria
Restrictions – the operation is impossible without Chisinau
Despite the military simplicity of the scenario, the international legal aspect remains a key factor. Ukraine cannot act independently without coordination with Moldova.
The expert emphasizes that this is a matter of principle.
We cannot independently conduct such an operation without coordination with official Chisinau. This is possible only in the case of a corresponding request or agreement from Moldova
At the same time, he admits that in the event of aggression, the situation changes.
If an attack is carried out from the side of Transnistria, then Ukraine receives the full right to act without additional approvals. And then the scenario will develop quite differently
Is a provocation beneficial to Ukraine?
In a theoretical dimension, an escalation by Transnistria could even play in Ukraine's favor, as it would untie its hands for action. However, this does not mean that such a scenario is desirable.
In a certain sense, yes – it could give us legal grounds to act quickly and harshly. But that is a matter of the development of events. We cannot build a strategy on the fact that someone will make a mistake