U.S. officials believe that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by 2028 is becoming increasingly unlikely, despite Chinese President Xi Jinping’s instructions to the Chinese military to be ready by 2027 to seize the democratically governed island by force if necessary, people familiar with the U.S. assessment said. Reuters reports, UNN writes.
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The main reasons are delays in preparing the military amid the Chinese Communist Party’s anti-corruption campaign, as well as Beijing’s desire to see the results of Taiwan’s 2028 elections. Some Chinese officials hope they could bring to power a government more favorable to bringing the island under China’s control.
Beijing may increasingly consider using force in 2028 and beyond if the Democratic Progressive Party wins a fourth consecutive term in Taiwan’s elections, especially if incumbent President Lai Ching-te is re-elected, the sources added.
If that happens, then I think 2028 will be quite tense
Lai, who took office two years ago, and his ruling Democratic Progressive Party advocate a separate Taiwanese identity from China — a position that often irritates Beijing. China considers the island an inalienable part of its territory. Taiwan categorically rejects China’s claims and says that only its people can determine their own future.
The assessment, which has not previously been reported, is a significant update to the longstanding view among U.S. officials that Xi wanted his military to be ready to potentially seize Taiwan by force in 2027 — the centenary of the founding of China’s People’s Liberation Army. China has never ruled out using force to establish control over Taiwan, but it has never publicly confirmed an order to be ready by 2027.
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The 2027 benchmark, which analysts say concerns the readiness of the Chinese military rather than a set deadline for an invasion, has for many years created a sense of urgency in several U.S. administrations regarding countering China in the Asia-Pacific region.
The United States is Taiwan’s most important international partner and arms supplier, despite the absence of formal diplomatic relations. U.S. officials differ in their assessments of how seriously China may view the 2028 U.S. presidential election as a factor in deciding whether to take military action.
Three people familiar with the situation said Beijing may also want to assess the results of the U.S. elections, particularly in light of growing opposition among American voters to U.S. involvement in military operations abroad. At the same time, the first U.S. official said Beijing views both Democrats and Republicans as largely united on the Taiwan issue.