The Kremlin is working on several scenarios for the further development of the war against Ukraine — from an attempt at a protracted confrontation to a gradual freezing of the conflict and the expansion of hybrid aggression against NATO countries. Andriy Kovalenko, head of the Center for Countering Disinformation of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, wrote about this on Telegram, as reported by UNN.
The Kremlin currently appears to have at least 3 scenarios for the war. One of them involves an attempt to gradually freeze the confrontation.
The enemy's first scenario is the continuation of the war until at least 2028. Currently, the Russians are betting on this year's spring-summer attempt at assault operations. The war scenario until 2028 is not realistic without future mobilization in Russia.
The second scenario is a "drift" towards a ceasefire and freezing of the war. For this, propagandists in Russia are already forming a narrative according to which dictator Putin was poorly informed about the situation at the front, and the war "reached a stalemate due to the actions of generals who lied."
The third scenario is the continuation of the war against Ukraine with a parallel transition to a hybrid war with NATO closer to 2028. This could involve aggressive actions against the Baltic states. Against this background, Russia is pushing a bill that allows the use of the army in other countries to "protect Russian citizens."
In the case of the Baltic countries, the Kremlin may resort to drone attacks and the involvement of small sabotage and reconnaissance groups of 20 people who will infiltrate the territories of these states for certain operations. Also, in this context, the topic of military factories on the territory of NATO countries, which "pose a threat to Russia," is already being raised.
Of course, these are only individual plans that may be far from the real circumstances both on the battlefield and in geopolitics.