Ukrainian troops in the winter and spring of 2026 achieved their greatest successes on the battlefield since the "Kursk operation" in August 2024 and liberated the most territory within Ukraine since the 2023 counteroffensive. This is stated in a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), as reported by UNN.
Details
It is noted that the "realities of the battlefield" as of the end of March 2026 show that Russia is unlikely to quickly regain territories in the Kupyansk direction or in southern Ukraine.
Russia's advance has slowed significantly as Russian forces continue to suffer personnel losses and increasingly rely on poorly trained and underequipped infantry to achieve success
According to them, Russian forces have held the initiative throughout the theater of operations since 2023, but recent Ukrainian gains in the Kupyansk direction and in southern Ukraine demonstrate that Ukrainian forces are capable of conducting successful counterattacks, achieving tactically significant successes, hindering Russia's preparations for offensive operations, and seizing the initiative on the battlefield in some areas.
Russian forces captured 1929.69 square kilometers between October 1, 2025, and March 31, 2026, advancing at an average of 10.66 square kilometers per day. Russian forces, for comparison, captured 2716.57 square kilometers of territory between October 1, 2024, and March 31, 2025, advancing at an average rate of 14.9 square kilometers per day. Russian forces advanced at an average of 5.5 square kilometers per day during the first three months of 2026, compared to an average rate of 11.06 square kilometers per day during the first three months of 2025
They state that Ukrainian counterattacks and medium-range strikes, the blocking of Russia's use of Starlink terminals in Ukraine, and the Kremlin's attempts to block Telegram have exacerbated existing problems within the Russian armed forces.
Recall
Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrskyi reported that starting from January 29, 2026, Ukrainian military personnel have been conducting an offensive operation in the Oleksandrivka direction and have already liberated more than 480 square kilometers of territory.
Syrskyi told whether Russia's announced spring offensive has begun31.03.26, 11:56