Futures prices for natural gas at the Dutch TTF hub rose above 32 euros per MWh in early Tuesday, January 13, reaching their highest level in two months, since early November 2025. This is evidenced by trading data on the ICE exchange, reports UNN with reference to ExPro.
Details
It is noted that gas in Europe is becoming more expensive due to several factors:
- cold weather persists in most of Europe. Only in Northwestern Europe is there a slight warming, while Central and Eastern Europe are facing significant cooling. Cold weather contributes to an increase in gas consumption;
- the increase in gas consumption provokes larger withdrawals from underground gas storage facilities, where reserves are 12 billion cubic meters less than last year. Storage facilities are 54% full compared to 66% last year;
- rising CO2 emission prices – up to 90 euros per MWh, a maximum in two and a half years. Such an increase is expected to affect the transition from coal to natural gas for electricity generation;
- interruptions at French nuclear power plants (Flamanville) also increase demand for natural gas for electricity generation. At the same time, gas supplies, although sufficient, cannot cover all demand. The expected cooling in Asia may increase competition for LNG on the world market.
Among geopolitical factors, tensions remain around protests in Iran. Although gas exports from Iran are limited (to Iraq and Turkey), disruptions could have an impact on the global market. Signals are already emerging regarding possible restrictions on gas supplies from Iran to Iraq
At the same time, experts predict that the current rise in natural gas prices in Europe has a limited impact on gas prices in the Ukrainian market.
Low natural gas trading activity and weak domestic demand keep prices in Ukraine from rising
At the same time, analysts indicate that the spread between natural gas prices in Ukraine and Europe is narrowing, which may mean smaller volumes of commercial gas imports to Ukraine in February.
Recall
In December, gas prices in Europe fell to the level that existed before the full-scale war in Ukraine, but the expected "miracle" did not happen. Despite cheap fuel, European factories continue to close en masse or move to other countries.