Vladimir Putin’s claims about the alleged large-scale advance of the Russian army in Ukraine in September differ so markedly from the actual situation at the front that they “resemble hallucinations.” In fact, over the month, Russia did not seize any new territories; on the contrary, it lost some areas it had previously controlled, according to a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), UNN writes.
Details
On October 1, Putin stated that Russian troops had allegedly captured 1,301 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory during September. According to him, this was 2.5 times more than in previous months.
However, ISW calculations show the opposite picture. In September, Russian forces recorded a net territorial loss of 80.81 square kilometers. If areas that Russian military personnel entered but failed to establish control over are included, the figure reaches 175.18 square kilometers.
ISW explained where Putin may be getting such figures
Analysts believe that the Kremlin is attempting to create an exaggerated impression of the Russian army’s successes and convince Ukraine and the West that further Russian advances are supposedly inevitable. ISW views such statements as part of Russia’s cognitive warfare.
At the same time, the analysts do not claim that Putin is knowingly citing false figures. According to one version, the Russian military command itself may be passing him vastly exaggerated data about the situation at the front. ISW has previously drawn attention to the practice of so-called “beautiful reports,” in which Russian commanders inflate the scale of advances and conceal failures.
The situation at the front
This also contradicts recent assessments of the situation at the front. At the end of September, even a Russian military blogger linked to the Kremlin described the front line as “static,” which, according to ISW’s assessment, effectively indicates almost zero net advances by Russian forces over the past several months.
Putin also continues to claim that it is possible to seize the entire Donetsk region and uses such statements to justify demands concerning Ukrainian territories. At the same time, ISW has repeatedly recorded that the Russian command significantly exaggerates its successes on the battlefield.
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