A new poll by the conservative company Rasmussen Reports shows that Vice President Kamala Harris is ahead of former President Donald Trump in Michigan, UNN reports .
Details
Following President Joe Biden's decision to drop out of the presidential race on July 21 and support his vice president, Harris, the Democratic Party's position in the polls has strengthened significantly. Harris, who is now officially the Democratic nominee, is ahead of Trump, the Republican candidate, in many national polls and in some key states where Biden usually lagged.
Michigan poll
According to a new Rasmussen poll conducted from August 13 to 17, Harris is slightly ahead of Trump by 1 percent in the race: 48 percent of Michigan residents support the vice president, while 47 percent support the former president.
Harris' advantage increases to three percent when third-party candidates are included in the poll. In this case, Harris is supported by 47 percent of respondents, and Trump by 44 percent. Green Party candidate Jill Stein, Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver, and independent candidate Cornel West each receive 1 percent support. The poll covered 1,093 likely Michigan voters.
Michigan is considered a key state that could determine the winner in the Electoral College. Trump won a narrow victory in Michigan in 2016, but Biden returned the state to the Democrats in 2020. Before Trump's victory in 2016, Michigan had not voted Republican since 1988.
Pennsylvania poll
It's worth noting that another new poll from Rasmussen in Pennsylvania, conducted on the same dates, shows a tight race. In this poll, Trump is ahead of Harris by 1 percent in the race. However, when third-party candidates are taken into account, Harris is 1 percent ahead of Trump.
Trump has 47 percent support in Pennsylvania, while Harris has 46 percent. When independents are included, Harris remains at 46 percent, while Trump loses 2 percent to 45 percent. The poll covered 1,312 likely Pennsylvania voters.
Similar to Michigan, Pennsylvania voted for Trump in 2016 and then swung back to Biden in 2020. Before Trump's victory, the state had not voted Republican since 1988.
Average results of the surveys
On average, Harris is ahead of Trump in Michigan and Pennsylvania. According to an analysis of polls by ABC News on the FiveThirtyEight website, Harris is ahead of Trump by 2.6 percent in Michigan and about 1.4 percent in Pennsylvania.
In Michigan, Harris averages 45.9 percent support, compared to Trump's 43.3 percent, according to FiveThirtyEight. In Pennsylvania, the Democrat gets 46.1 percent, while Trump has 44.7 percent.
The independent Silver Bulletin, created by Nate Silver, the founder of FiveThirtyEight who left ABC last year, shows that Harris averages 46 percent support compared to Trump's 43.1 percent in Michigan. In Pennsylvania, Harris averages 46.2 percent and Trump 44.7 percent.
Trump dismisses these poll results, saying last week that he is “leading by a lot.” At a press conference on Thursday, he also recalled 2016, when many polls showed him trailing Democratic rival Hillary Clinton. Trump eventually won a narrow victory in the Electoral College, though he lost the popular vote.
Newsweek reached out to the Trump and Harris campaigns for comment by email on Sunday.