In the event of a collision, an object 40 to 100 meters in size can cause local destruction.
Transmits UNN with reference to Science Alert.
Global space agencies are closely monitoring an asteroid heading toward Earth. Studies have taken into account the 1.3% probability that a celestial body could hit our planet over the next eight years.
The probability of a collision is 1 in 83, the publication notes.
Size and trajectory of the asteroid
The asteroid 2024 YR4 was discovered on December 27, 2024, by one of the telescopes that are part of the ATLAS observing network (a project that autonomously scans the sky on a continuous basis).
Astronomers estimate that the asteroid is approximately 60 meters in diameter, although it could vary from 40 to 100 meters, similar to the object that caused the Tunguska explosion in 1908.
YR4 is approximately 43 million kilometers from Earth and is moving away from our planet.
Now it is especially difficult to accurately predict the path of asteroid 2024 YR4, as it has an elongated (eccentric) orbit around the Sun, and is currently moving in an almost straight line from Earth. Therefore, the area of uncertainty is very large.
Potential impact
So far, the composition of the asteroid cannot be determined precisely, so it is difficult to predict the consequences of a potential collision.
However, experts say that it will be an event with devastating local consequences, possibly within a radius of several tens of kilometres around the point of impact.
If the risk of an asteroid impact remains above 1 percent, the group will advise the United Nations and consider our options, which will likely involve diverting or destroying the asteroid with a spacecraft, such as NASA's Dart mission.
Recall
Scientists have confirmed that the asteroid that wiped out the dinosaurs 66 million years ago was not the only one. A second, smaller asteroid crashed into the sea off the coast of West Africa, causing a massive tsunami and leaving a 9-kilometer crater behind.