The supply of military aid to Ukraine for the next year is under threat due to a lack of funding from its allies. Ukraine is trying to convince its Western allies to fulfill their financial obligations. Moscow's military machine, on the other hand, is ahead of Kyiv in its ability to acquire much-needed ammunition, missiles and other equipment to repel attacks. Bloomberg writes about this, UNN reports.
Much of Ukraine's military support in 2025 is tied to the Group of Seven's $50 billion loan agreement with the proceeds of frozen Russian assets.
The allies are still haggling over the final details of the deal, and the U.S. wants assurances that Hungary will not block European Union measures. The final amount could be less if an agreement is not reached,” Bloomberg notes .
But even if a deal is reached, $50 billion would still not be enough to cover Ukraine's needs for another year of war - and the allies would have to find a way beyond that funding, people say.
The Ukrainian government forecasts a budget deficit of 19% of gross domestic product in 2025, requiring about $35 billion to fill it, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said last month.
Зеленський - Гарріс: справедливий мир неможливий без підтримки США26.09.24, 23:33
More than half of this amount will come from the International Monetary Fund and the EU, and about $15 billion is needed to replenish the balance - according to officials, this may require some of the G7 loans.
In addition, we are talking about military funding. The $50 billion to be allocated by the G7 will be roughly equivalent to the military aid that the United States and key European allies provided between January 2023 and June of this year.
According to data compiled by the Kiel Institute, the United States provided about 31.5 billion euros during this period, while Germany, the United Kingdom, France, and Italy provided about 15.7 billion euros.
Столтенберг: в НАТО могли зробити більше для запобігання війні в Україні14.09.24, 14:57
These figures may not include all military support provided to Ukraine, as some countries do not disclose all assistance provided. In other cases, promises have not yet been fulfilled. Among other things, the Ukrainian military is counting on allies to help it acquire artillery ammunition, missiles, and air defense systems.
The looming money crisis among allies comes at a dangerous time for Ukraine and could force Kyiv to negotiate from a position of weakness, people say.
Next year will be particularly important because in 2026, the Russian economy may begin to experience growing pressure, a dynamic that, according to one European government, could undermine Putin's belief that time is on his side.
Байден проведе наступний "Рамштайн" у Німеччині 12 жовтня - Білий дім27.09.24, 08:45
Moscow, whose production is supported by supplies from Iran and North Korea, continues to direct budgetary funding to its military efforts. In 2025, Russia plans to spend 13.2 trillion rubles ($142 billion) on defense, or 6.2% of gross domestic product. It is expected that in 2025, defense and security expenditures will account for about 40% of the total budget of Russia.
Ukraine's European allies are facing financial difficulties of their own. The German government is constrained by constitutional debt limits and has reduced direct funding to Kyiv. France has a new government after a tumultuous election season and is under pressure from the EU to reduce its deficit. In Italy, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's coalition may be bound by spending commitments.
Negotiations on a new EU budget, as well as possible measures to increase defense spending by hundreds of billions of euros, are likely to be postponed until after the German elections.
Aid from the United Kingdom, a staunch ally that has often been the first to provide modern weapons, also appears to have stalled recently, according to an official familiar with the matter. Prime Minister Keir Starmer has told his constituents that they are in for tough times as he tries to rein in spending, although he also told the UN on Wednesday that Britain's support for Ukraine is “ironclad.
Of course, the promises of NATO allies continue to flow, the newspaper notes. On Thursday, Biden announced nearly $8 billion in new military aid to Ukraine and plans to convene a meeting of key allies to coordinate additional support during his visit to Germany next month.
The statement, which coincided with Zelenskiy's visit to the White House, says Biden is instructing the Pentagon to disburse all remaining aid to Ukraine by the end of his presidential term. The Defense Ministry also presents an initial aid package that includes additional air defense systems, drones, and ammunition.