Ukraine may receive a license to produce PAC-2 GEM-T missiles for Patriot systems, which are older than the modern PAC-3 MSE but significantly easier to mass-produce. This is likely the type of missile U.S. President Donald Trump had in mind when he spoke about granting Ukraine a license for a "less advanced version," Defense Express reports, according to UNN.
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The PAC-2 GEM-T has been in service since 2002 and destroys ballistic missiles using proximity detonation and fragmentation. According to the publication's assessment, the probability of intercepting a ballistic target is approximately 60%, compared with 80–90% for the PAC-3 MSE, so at least two missiles may be required for a single target.
At the same time, the PAC-2 GEM-T has an important production advantage. It does not require a number of the PAC-3 MSE's complex components, including an active radar homing seeker, a gas-dynamic lateral maneuvering system, and a dual-pulse solid-fuel motor.
Germany plans to produce 180 such missiles per year
Germany has decided to produce the PAC-2 GEM-T specifically at the COMLOG facility. The planned capacity of the new production line is 180 missiles per year. For comparison, the assembly of PAC-3 MSE missiles in Japan is limited to approximately 30 missiles per year due to dependence on the production of individual components.
Defense Express notes that, theoretically, Trump's words could also refer to the future PAC-3 ACE — a simplified missile that is approximately twice as cheap. However, its first test launch is scheduled only for early 2028, so serial production is still a long way off.
Thus, the publication considers the PAC-2 GEM-T to be the nearest realistic prospect for localization in Ukraine. Despite its lower performance against ballistic targets, its simpler design could potentially allow production to be launched more quickly and missiles to be manufactured in significantly larger quantities.