A groundbreaking international study has shown that Earth's geological timescale, once thought to be a chaotic sequence of mass extinctions, evolutionary leaps, and climatic upheavals, actually conforms to a clearly structured pattern. Instead of being scattered randomly, the boundaries separating the planet's epochs, periods, and eras are shaped by a deeply rooted rhythm that spans hundreds of millions of years, UNN writes, citing Daily Galaxy.
Details
For decades, scientists believed that the planet's major events – mass extinctions, evolutionary explosions, and global climate changes – occurred sporadically. Now, researchers say that this view was incomplete. The study, published in Earth and Planetary Science Letters and led by Professor Andrey Spiridonov of Vilnius University, reveals that Earth's deep history conforms to a precise mathematical pattern, structured not randomly, but by clustering over vast periods of time.
Geological timescales may look like neat timelines in textbooks, but their boundaries tell a much more chaotic story. Our results show that what seemed like uneven noise is actually key to understanding how our planet changes, and how far these changes can go.
The research team examined several geological timelines, including the International Geochronological Chart and fossil-based scales that rely on species such as graptolites, ammonoids, and conodonts. Using these records, they identified distinct clusters when geological time boundaries occurred. Instead of being evenly spaced, these boundaries appeared in tightly packed clusters, followed by long periods of relative silence.
Behind these clusters is a concept known as multifractals – mathematical structures where patterns repeat across different time scales. The researchers found that the intervals between key events in Earth's history obey this logic.
The intervals between key events in Earth's history, from mass extinctions to evolutionary explosions, are not scattered perfectly evenly. They follow a multifractal logic that shows how variability cascades through time.
To explain this pattern, the team developed a complex multifractal-Poisson process – a new model that suggests that major events are nested within each other in a layered hierarchy. Smaller disturbances are contained within larger ones, and the process extends into geological time. This means that even the planet's most extreme changes can be part of a broader, predictable system.
These structures remained hidden from view largely due to the immense time frames. Patterns unfolding over hundreds of millions – or even billions – of years are easily missed without large datasets and precise modeling.
Understanding Earth's "external timescale"
One of the study's most far-reaching discoveries is the identification of an external timescale – the limit of how much Earth's variability can be observed over a given period of time. According to the researchers, this threshold is at least 500 million years, and ideally about a billion years. This is the range needed to encompass the full spectrum of the planet's behavior, from prolonged calm to sudden chaos.
If we want to understand the full spectrum of Earth's behavior, be it periods of calm or sudden global upheavals, we need geological records spanning at least half a billion years. And ideally, a billion.
This understanding also explains why short-term models often fail to account for large-scale changes. Without a billion-year prism, researchers may underestimate the extremes – both stable and destructive – that have shaped Earth's surface and life.
Instead of focusing solely on individual events, such as asteroid impacts or volcanic winters, the study recontextualizes them within a broader structural context. Earth's history is not only marked by anomalies – it is driven by long-term cycles of transformation that leave behind measurable patterns.
This deeper understanding can improve future climate and planetary system models. By recognizing the embedded structure of past upheavals, scientists can be better prepared to predict what planetary changes lie ahead.
Addition
On the night of September 7-8, a lunar eclipse will occur, during which the Earth's satellite will turn red, and Saturn will be visible next to it. The full phase of the eclipse will begin at 8:30 PM Kyiv time and last until 9:52 PM.