The global oil market is experiencing significant fluctuations, and Russia's revenues from crude oil exports have fallen to their lowest level since the start of the war. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), even the growth in global demand in 2025 will not offset overproduction and excess inventories. The agency reported this in its report, writes UNN.
Details
According to the IEA, global oil supplies reached a record 106.9 million barrels per day in August, with OPEC+ cutting production and other producers operating at maximum capacity. Demand in developed countries increased slightly due to lower prices, but consumption growth remained subdued in developing countries. As a result, total global oil consumption in 2025 will remain almost unchanged.
Brent crude oil prices fell to $67 per barrel in August, almost unchanged from July. Although sanctions against Russia and Iran are reducing these countries' exports, market surplus and active oil refining are keeping prices relatively low.
In 2025, global oil production is projected to increase to 107.9 million barrels per day, with a large portion coming from non-OPEC+ countries. At the same time, OPEC+ plans to gradually increase production, but due to capacity constraints in Russia and some other members, actual growth will be lower than planned.
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International analysts note that the oversupply and active accumulation of inventories in China are putting pressure on the market and limiting Russia's profits from oil sales. The situation is expected to remain difficult, even if geopolitical tensions increase and new sanctions affect trade.
Recall
Brent and WTI oil prices fell amid rising US crude oil and gasoline inventories, which increases the risk of oversupply. Weak demand and a slowing US economy are weighing on oil markets, despite geopolitical risks.
Earlier, it was reported that oil prices rose after OPEC+'s decision to increase production less significantly and rumors of new sanctions against Russia. Brent and WTI rose to $66.37 and $62.58 per barrel, respectively.
However, a few days ago, Brent and WTI oil futures fell amid expectations of increased OPEC+ production and rising US crude oil inventories. This led to weekly losses for the first time in three weeks.