The economy of the aggressor state - the Russian Federation - entered 2026 with very low indicators. In particular, the record deficit of regional budgets of 1.538 trillion rubles was only the most noticeable symptom. This is reported by UNN with reference to the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine.
Details
At the same time, according to the Russian Ministry of Finance, the gap between regional revenues and expenditures increased fivefold compared to the previous year.
Economists directly state that the war has become the main economic factor in the country. From 2026, the pressure will only intensify: small businesses with incomes of 20 million rubles or more will be forced to pay an additional 5% VAT on top of the 6% revenue tax. Some entrepreneurs are already declaring their readiness to curtail operations or work "at a loss," which means even lower tax revenues for the regions.
Despite the current situation, Rosstat reports an increase in real incomes of the population, while independent analysts consider these data to be detached from reality.
Indirect indicators suggest otherwise - Russians are refusing large purchases, saving on food, and postponing non-urgent medical services. Sociology confirms this: only a minority of citizens feel an improvement in well-being.
As noted by the SZR, the federal center could theoretically "flood" the problems with money, but this would mean a new wave of emissions and inflationary pressure, which the Russian central bank fears.
Therefore, Moscow will only save strategically important enterprises, leaving the regions to deal with debts on their own. Depressed and mono-industrial territories, where the economy relies on one large factory or mine, are most at risk. Analysts do not expect a sudden collapse - rather, it is about slow exhaustion. The Russian economy is not exploding, but gradually losing resources, the quality of life is decreasing, and development opportunities are narrowing. And the main conclusion: as long as the war continues, nothing good will come of the economy.
Recall
Earlier, UNN, citing the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine, reported that Russia is curtailing access to official statistics. This may indicate a deliberate concealment of the real state of the economy amid the full-scale war against Ukraine.