Leading Russian economic institutions – the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting, the Higher School of Economics, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation – have recorded that the country's economy has closely approached stagflation. This was reported by the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine (FIS), according to UNN.
Details
They indicate that the recognition of crisis trends comes from structures affiliated with the Kremlin.
The composite leading indicator of the economy entering a recession has exceeded 0.44 since November 2025 – with a critical threshold of 0.12. At the same time, the symmetrical indicator of exiting a recession fell to 0.05 in November 2025, compared to 0.10 in October, remaining far below the critical level of 0.35. This means not only a high probability of recession but also extremely low chances of a quick recovery – analysts warn of the risk of a prolonged downturn lasting more than a year.
It is noted that the industrial sector of the Russian Federation shows a steady deterioration. Thus, the S&P Global PMI index for the manufacturing industry for January 2026 remains below 50 points – in the contraction zone. Profitability in industry has fallen from 20% to 12% since September 2024 and continues to decline.
Consumer sentiment is collapsing. ... The index of economic expectations of the population in January 2026 fell to 113 points compared to 140 in 2024. The consumer sentiment index returned to the levels of late 2022 – 98 points, reflecting the prevalence of pessimism among Russians.
They add that the baseline scenario for 2026, according to the estimates of Russian institutions themselves, is a further slowdown amid weak GDP dynamics and reduced investment, with a real risk of a technical recession.
Recall
Mutual trade between the European Union and the Russian Federation decreased by 5.4 times compared to the period before the full-scale invasion. Russia lost its status as a key partner of Europe, its share in European imports fell to 1.0%.