The war in Ukraine may end in 2025, but its outcome will depend on international support and future peace talks, UNN reports citing The New York Times.
Regardless of the outcome of the U.S. presidential election, the war in Ukraine is likely to end in 2025. Human resources are dwindling in both countries, and active mobilization continues. This creates conditions for the start of peace talks.
Donald Trump's victory may accelerate this process. During his campaign, he promised to end the war before his inauguration. While this seems like an exaggeration, his desire to start negotiations as soon as possible is clear.
However, this is bad news for Ukraine. Russia is advancing in the east and is regaining territory lost last summer. Ukraine continues to defend itself, but its troops are scattered and facing a shortage of soldiers. Without more aid, especially from the United States, Kyiv risks losing its ability to effectively counter the aggression.
Europe, although it developed a plan to provide logistical support to Ukraine at the NATO summit, is unlikely to be able to compensate for the loss of American aid. Europe's economic and industrial resources are severely limited, and without U.S. support, securing weapons and funding for Ukraine will be a serious problem.
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy admits that the return of lost territories through diplomatic means may become an inevitable scenario.
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The Biden administration is trying to put Ukraine in a favorable position in negotiations by providing weapons, including long-range missiles. However, even such measures are unlikely to allow Ukraine to regain most of its territory.
For Ukraine, the outcome of the war depends not only on military achievements, but also on agreements with Europe and the United States that will guarantee long-term security and economic integration with the West. At the same time, NATO membership remains unlikely, especially under a Trump presidency, which is unlikely to provide such a guarantee.
The proposals for Ukraine's neutrality, which are supported by some Republicans, meet Russia's demands. Trump may seek to show concessions from Putin, such as Ukraine's economic integration with Europe, but this is no substitute for security guarantees. Kyiv fears that such a deal would give Putin time to recuperate for new attacks.
Protecting Kyiv will be the most difficult and critical aspect of any negotiations. While Trump will not want to appear weak, the possibility of a deal that suits both sides remains highly uncertain.
Recall
US President-elect Donald Trump saidthat resolving the war in Ukraine is his top priority, although the situation in the Middle East is no less important to him.