A wave of Ukrainian drone strikes on oil refineries deep inside russia has forced the Kremlin to hastily defend its territory while continuing to wage war with its neighbor. But the terrorist attacks have also led to the unthinkable - causing the world's largest oil state to run out of gasoline, reports UNN citing Politico.
Details
According to the russian government, diesel prices for russian consumers have skyrocketed, increasing by almost 10 percent in the last week alone. The cost of gasoline has also hit a six-month high, up more than 20 percent since the beginning of the year, as supplies dwindle and more and more refineries are forced to suspend production.
Last Wednesday, two fuel storage facilities belonging to Russian energy giant Rosneft, about 500 kilometers from the Ukrainian border, were severely damaged by drones as the fuel went up in smoke. More than a dozen refineries in nine Russian regions have been similarly affected this year, with officials in Kiev saying the industry is a legitimate target of war.
"It's like a mosquito: if you can't find it, you can't kill it, and it keeps coming back night after night, you're going to be fatigued," said Philip Ingram, a former British military intelligence officer and NATO planner. "It's a very good way to take the pressure off the front lines.
As a result, Moscow cut fuel exports to near historic lows, shipping just over 712,000 tons of diesel and gasoil last week, compared with more than 844,000 tons in the same week in 2023.
For Moscow, this is both a political and military issue. Cheap fuel is not only essential to russia's military efforts, but is also a key part of president vladimir putin's offer to society, an antidote to lagging wages and a weak ruble.
Add
The publication notes that the trend appears likely to continue for the foreseeable future.
Speaking to local media this week, Igor Yushkov, an analyst with Russia's National Energy Security Fund, said prices are unlikely to come down anytime soon - and the country may even have to import gasoline from stocks stored in neighboring Belarus.
Moscow was forced to ban gasoline and diesel exports last year because of shortages on the domestic market, where regulations have historically kept prices low to appease motorists and artificially boost the agricultural sector.
However, as fuel became more expensive internationally, middlemen profited by selling cheap gasoline abroad that was intended for use inside russia, creating a booming black market. moscow eased the ban in november, but was forced to reintroduce it in march due to the ukrainian strikes.
While most Western countries have stopped importing refined Russian fuels such as gasoline and diesel, the United Arab Emirates, along with several South American and North African countries, continue to buy them. Moscow will now have to choose between maximizing the cash flow that fills its war chest or ensuring that its soldiers and civilians can replenish their tanks.
"Ukraine's 'physical sanctions' may accelerate real sanctions," said Maria Shagina, an expert on Russian economics at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. "Kiev has discovered Moscow's technological vulnerability, and Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries are accelerating the impact of Western sanctions, which have already made those refineries struggle to replace Western equipment, spare parts and software.
However, Ukraine's attempts to cut off the flow of fuel and funds that the Kremlin uses to spread death and destruction have prompted warnings from the United States, with senior officials such as Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin publicly warning against strikes for fear of disrupting the global energy system. Meanwhile, moscow has been actively attacking Ukrainian infrastructure, destroying the country's power grid, the publication adds.
Kiev has vowed to do everything it can to undermine russia's ability to wage war despite the warnings.
The strikes "have an effect because they destroy oil infrastructure and other critical national infrastructure," said Ingram, a former British military intelligence officer.
He predicts that this strategy "will be studied in officer training academies in the coming decades.