The civil aviation industry in Russia is rapidly degrading due to international sanctions, lack of technology, and critical aging of the aircraft fleet. This is reported by the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, writes UNN.
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It is noted that 95% of all passenger traffic in Russia is carried out by Western-made aircraft — mainly Airbus and Boeing. Medium- and long-haul transportation is 100% provided by Western airliners.
A significant part of this fleet has already exhausted the resource guaranteed by the manufacturer and, according to international standards, is unfit for operation. Russians cannot extend the service life of Western-made aircraft through qualified technical maintenance due to international sanctions imposed over the full-scale war against Ukraine.
Currently, Russian airlines carry out repairs and technical maintenance without the necessary certificates. They manufacture some of the required parts themselves, without adhering to the technological processes defined by the manufacturers and using inappropriate materials.
Components that cannot be manufactured in-house, Russians try to import through third countries. This applies to both high-tech engine assemblies and cabin elements, the GUR noted.
In fact, the GUR noted, these aircraft continue to remain in the air only thanks to the high reliability of the design and components laid down by Western manufacturers and certified service centers.
Furthermore, according to the GUR, Russian airlines are significantly limited in operating international flights. Without the risk of arrest abroad, they can use about 400 foreign-made aircraft and fewer than one and a half hundred Russian-Soviet-made aircraft. To avoid arrests due to sanctions, Russians intend to use shell leasing companies.
Increasingly, the method of "aviation cannibalism" is used for aircraft repairs in Russia — some machines are dismantled for spare parts to maintain the airworthiness of others. Cases are recorded where even new, fully equipped aircraft are dismantled for this purpose to ensure the operation of a dozen other aircraft
To replace Western aircraft, Russia has developed an ambitious program until 2030, which provides for the production of 994 civilian aircraft and 765 helicopters. About $12 billion has been allocated for the implementation of the program. However, the GUR emphasized that the effectiveness of using these funds raises serious doubts even in Russia.
As noted by the GUR, "cut off from Western technologies, the Russian aircraft manufacturing industry proved unable to develop and manufacture components that would meet international standards and stated technical specifications. All this leads to constant delays in certification and the launch of serial production of Russian aircraft. Moreover, technical discrepancies may completely close the possibility of operating such aircraft on international airlines."
Thus, the MS-21 aircraft, which was supposed to replace the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737, will carry fewer passengers due to technical problems and difficulties with the PD-14 engines. Its capacity has been reduced from 210 to 163 seats. Such a step requires additional costs for redesigning the aircraft and re-certification.
Similar problems also arose with the PD-8 engines for the "Superjet" of the Sukhoi Design Bureau, which was supposed to replace aircraft of the Embraer E-Jet family.
It was decided not to order new models of the Il-96 at all, although the state program provided for the purchase of 14 such aircraft.
The aircraft manufacturing industry of Russia is also unable to provide a replacement for the An-2 and An-24/26, as full-fledged maintenance and modernization of these aircraft are impossible without the participation of the Ukrainian JSC "Antonov"
The LMS-901 "Baikal", which was supposed to replace the An-2, is not capable of performing its functions, in particular, taking off and landing on unprepared Russian dirt strips, and this is one of the advantages of the Ukrainian An-2, which is already over half a century old, the GUR noted.
The situation with the Il-114-300, which was supposed to replace the An-24/26, also turned out to be far from ideal. It turned out that the Il-114-300 can only operate from airfields with artificial surfaces. The reason is the excessively low placement of the propellers, which are made of materials that do not meet the required standards. Consequently, there are high risks of their destruction
Production capacity remains a serious problem for the Russians. According to the GUR, their nominal capacity is only 26 aircraft per year, which does not allow them to achieve the targets set by the program until 2030. Increasing production requires significant additional capital investments.
Currently, all modern Russian aircraft face a common problem — the lack of access to Western software. Existing Western-made aircraft have been left without updates and access to digital aeronavigation systems. An additional danger is created by the systematic jamming of GPS signals by Russian troops, but flights still continue.
Airfield infrastructure also remains problematic, the GUR emphasized. 158 airfields are being operated in violation of safety requirements — almost two-thirds of their total number. Another 134 airfields require reconstruction or major repairs.
Thus, the civil aviation industry in Russia continues to rapidly degrade due to international sanctions, a lack of technology and expertise, as well as the critical aging of the aircraft fleet, which forces Russian air carriers to increasingly relax aircraft operation standards. Flying with Russian airlines today is a significant risk, because no matter how reliable Western aircraft are, the Russians are unable to ensure proper conditions for their maintenance and operation