Fuel prices in Ukraine may rise in the near future, and the mark of 93 hryvnias per liter no longer seems so unrealistic. For more details on what to expect from fuel prices in the near future and what it depends on, the director of the company group "Naftotrade Podillia" Vyacheslav Bachuk told UNN specifically.
Can gasoline rise to 93 hryvnias
The issue of a possible increase in fuel costs remains one of the key concerns for Ukrainian drivers. According to the expert, such a price is quite realistic. At the same time, he does not yet expect a sharp jump to this level next week.
93 UAH is a real price. This is possible in the near future. I'm not saying that next week the price tag on gas station displays will be 93. The main factors are still the blocked Strait of Hormuz, which is not being unblocked, and the situation there is escalating further. Also, the Yemeni Houthis are joining in shelling tankers, so this morning several oil tankers were turned around due to the threat of shelling
Also, according to the expert, additional pressure on the market is created by difficulties with fuel supply to Ukraine. According to Vyacheslav Bachuk, there are currently problems with confirming fuel supply volumes for August, so this could affect the balance of supply and demand.
If we talk about our domestic market, the volumes contracted for August are not being confirmed by foreign traders to Ukrainians. That is, for August, there are no confirmed volumes of fuel, specifically finished products, for Ukraine yet. This, in turn, also creates a shortage. And with a shortage, prices cannot help but rise
There are practically no stocks of cheap fuel
Vyacheslav Bachuk notes that most fuel market operators do not accumulate significant stocks of petroleum products, except for large gas station chains, which are forced to maintain a certain reserve to supply their stations, although even this is very risky
Almost no one is keeping stocks now. Only large network traders of our Ukrainian market keep fuel at oil depots, although this is a big threat of shelling. However, they are forced to keep it because they need to supply their gas station network. And the rest of the wholesalers work virtually on wheels, that is, in trucks, or under direct contracts. That is, it's a "conveyor belt," so to speak. Therefore, there really are no stocks in Ukraine
The expert separately highlights the harvest season. Currently, agriculture and logistics require significant volumes of diesel fuel for harvesting and transporting crops. Therefore, there is an increased demand for fuel, which also affects the market situation.
The harvest is now actively starting. This means high fuel consumption by farmers. And accordingly, the intensity of transporting this grain by transport companies increases. And this, in turn, increases the demand for fuel
What fuel prices depend on in autumn
Speaking about the prospects for the coming months, Vyacheslav Bachuk emphasized that the key factor remains the situation in the Middle East. In his opinion, it is geopolitical tension that determines the dynamics of the oil market. Because of this, it is difficult for him to make long-term forecasts.
Since March, the main factor in the price increase has been the war in the Middle East. Accordingly, the war in the Middle East is politics. This is politics, excuse me, of the USA, Trump, and the Middle East. This, in turn, shows the great dependence of the entire world on the largest powerful countries in the world, that is, America and China
The expert also drew attention to the situation with oil reserves in the USA and the global balance of supply and demand. According to him, uncertainty in the market remains high. Therefore, the further development of events will depend on the international situation.
Strategic oil reserves in the USA are now the lowest in many years. That is, the situation with oil is not being fully resolved. Therefore, everything will depend on how the situation around Iran and the global oil market develops