The head of the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service, Kaupo Rozin, believes that the West should be interested in russia's defeat in the Ukrainian-russian war. He said this during the DW Conflict Zone program, UNN reports.
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The head of the Estonian intelligence service believes that russia could unleash a global armed conflict if putin realizes that he can get out of the war unscathed and "get away with it".
Rosin said that how the war in Ukraine ends will determine the timing of a potential NATO military conflict with russia.
If, after the Ukrainian-russian war, there is a situation in which russia, let's say, emerges victorious, a very confident state, then it will make all calculations based on this new situation
Therefore, Rosin believes that the West should be interested in russia emerging from the war against Ukraine as a weakened state, whose authorities will have to solve the internal problems it is likely to face if it loses the military conflict.
I think that putin will not survive the defeat of russia
The second determining factor is the amount of time it will take for the russians to rebuild or create new armed forces. He noted that the russian armed forces today are several hundred thousand soldiers larger than before the large-scale invasion. He also reminded that moscow is expanding the production of ammunition and modern weapons, some of which are not yet used in the war in Ukraine. However, he is confident that russia will not be able to compensate for the current level of losses in manpower and equipment in the coming years.
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In February 2024, Estonia's intelligence agency published a report stating that moscow is preparing for a military confrontation with the West, and that this could happen within the next ten years. This is a much more optimistic assessment than many other European military and political figures. For example, in July, British Army Chief General Roland Walker said that NATO has only three to five years to prepare for war with what he called the "axis of turmoil": russia, China, North Korea, and Iran.
Recall
The Estonian Defense Minister announced plans to produce military products for Ukraine worth more than 100 million euros annually. Estonia seeks to prioritize Ukraine's needs by 2025.