Price pressure will persist in the coming months, resulting in inflation reaching 9.7% by the end of 2024, but it will begin to slow in the spring of 2025, the National Bank of Ukraine predicts, UNN reports.
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According to the NBU, price pressure will continue in the coming months due to the continued influence of factors from the food supply, expansion of budget expenditures, high wage growth and an increase in energy deficit during the heating season. "As a result, inflation will reach 9.7% by the end of 2024," the regulator said
"At the same time, inflation will begin to decline in the spring of 2025," the NBU predicts.
The NBU expects that a prudent monetary policy of the NBU, an easing of external price pressure, an improvement in the energy sector, and an increase in harvests will contribute to a slowdown in price growth next year.
"The NBU's forecast envisages a decline in inflation to 6.9% at the end of 2025 and its bringing to the 5% target in 2026," the statement said.
In recent months, according to the NBU, inflation has been rising as expected, but at a slightly faster pace than forecast.
"In September, inflation accelerated to 8.6% year-on-year and, according to the NBU's estimates, continued to grow in October," the regulator said.
The rise in food prices due to worse-than-expected harvests of various crops and the associated increase in the cost of raw materials for the food industry made a significant contribution to this trend. The acceleration of inflation was also driven by a further increase in production costs, including electricity and labor, and exchange rate effects due to the weakening of the hryvnia in previous periods, the NBU said.
NBU has given a forecast of hryvnia exchange rate fluctuations31.10.24, 14:24