U.S. intelligence agencies have warned the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is likely to take steps that will undermine Trump's efforts to reach a lasting peace deal with Iran, as the Israeli prime minister faces strong political pressure to continue his country's war in Lebanon, current and former U.S. officials told The Washington Post, reports UNN.
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According to intelligence reports, including one circulated this week, Israel appears intent on continuing military operations against Iran's proxy Hezbollah in Lebanon, which would contradict a key element of the new agreement calling for a cessation of hostilities in that country.
The analysis comes amid growing tensions between Netanyahu's government and Trump administration officials, who have publicly warned Israel against attacks on Hezbollah that could derail Trump's deal.
Trump's deal with Iran could become a "bitter pill" for Netanyahu - Axios13.06.26, 20:00
On Friday, Israel carried out airstrikes on southern Lebanon in response to a Hezbollah drone strike that killed four Israeli soldiers. As clashes continued, U.S. and Iranian officials said talks scheduled to begin in Switzerland on Friday had been postponed. U.S. Vice President JD Vance, who was to lead the U.S. delegation, postponed his trip. However, Axios journalist later reported that White House Special Envoy Steve Witkoff is heading to Switzerland, where the first round of talks with Iran on a potential nuclear deal is expected to take place, and that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi plans to travel to Switzerland on Saturday.
If Netanyahu escalates his military campaign in Lebanon, WP writes, he would not only jeopardize the framework of the agreement signed by the United States and Iran on Wednesday, but could also rupture relations with the U.S. president, which have been integral to his political success.
Speaking at a press conference in France on Wednesday to announce a "memorandum of understanding" between the U.S. and Iran, Trump said he had a "small dispute over Lebanon" with Netanyahu and urged the Israeli leader not to "take down a building every time someone from Hezbollah walks into it."
A new U.S. intelligence report concludes that, facing national elections this fall, Netanyahu's political survival is tied to showing his domestic audience that he will not withdraw troops from Lebanon and that he intends to escalate fighting with Hezbollah, said one U.S. official familiar with the report. The official, like others interviewed, spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter.
The U.S. intelligence report also describes Israel's frustration with the terms of Trump's peace memorandum, which undermine its broader goal of maintaining maximum pressure on Tehran, according to a current and a former official.
The report conveys Israel's view that the agreement could limit its ability to defend itself against Hezbollah, said one former official.
Trump said he called on Israel to agree on a ceasefire with Hezbollah19.06.26, 22:00
Trump administration officials insist that "the terms do not prevent Israel from striking Hezbollah if fired upon, and that Netanyahu's concerns pale in comparison to the need to reach a deal and reopen the Strait of Hormuz to prevent a global economic crisis."
The report notes that any suspension of hostilities or withdrawal of troops from Lebanon would be perceived by Israel as a defeat for Netanyahu, said a current official.
"Israel's military activity in Lebanon has a single purpose – to protect Israeli citizens from constant attacks by Hezbollah," a senior Israeli government official said on condition of anonymity according to government protocol in response to a request to comment on the U.S. intelligence analysis.
Even if Israel does not escalate fighting in Lebanon by bombing the southern suburbs of Beirut, where Hezbollah's power base lies, its refusal to withdraw troops from the south of the country will likely doom the fragile U.S.-Iran agreement, said a second U.S. official, who provided an independent analysis.
"Continuing the occupation of part of Lebanon is a recipe for disaster," the official said. "Without a full withdrawal of Israeli troops, the likelihood of renewed fighting between [the Israeli military] and Hezbollah is virtually guaranteed."