The Defense Forces have taken out 7 of Wildberries’ 10 largest logistics centers. On the night of August 16, the company’s largest warehouse by area in Koledino was hit by FP-1 drones, UNN reports.
“The trillion-ruble wild berry”
“On Sunday night, following a massive drone attack on the Moscow region, the company’s logistics hub in the Koledino industrial park also ceased operations, along with the warehouse in Domodedovo. This was Wildberries’ largest warehouse by area — 250,000 m²,” the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine reported.
Russian logistics is acutely feeling the consequences of the war that the russian federation brought to Ukraine. The warehouse in Koledino became the seventh of Wildberries’ largest warehouses to cease operations after being hit by Ukrainian drones. In total, more than a dozen of the company’s logistics hubs have been hit.
According to analysts’ estimates, Wildberries’ direct losses alone — the company has lost about 20% of its warehouse capacity in just a few weeks — could exceed 100 billion rubles ($1.24 billion), and in the worst-case scenario reach 200 billion ($2.45 billion).
The Bell reports that Wildberries’ total need for funds could reach 1.3 trillion rubles ($16.36 billion). The company will have to increase its debt by at least that amount in order to “reinvent itself.”
In addition, due to the outflow of sellers, many of whom instantly lost their businesses and goods worth hundreds of billions of rubles, Wildberries’ turnover, according to The Bell, has already declined by a quarter. In addition to the direct losses, this has broken the key financial backbone of the business empire. The thing is that Wildberries receives payment from the buyer immediately after a purchase, but transfers it to the seller only several weeks later. During all that time, the funds remain in the company’s working capital, which is used to pay current expenses and discounts.
But this works as long as turnover is growing, a source cited by The Bell explains the scheme: “Turnover was 100 billion, you spent 50 billion on discounts, but turnover grew to 200 billion.” When turnover falls, the pyramid begins to collapse.
Does Russia have the ability to save Wildberries?
The The Moscow Times reports that the Russian government is currently preparing a support package concerning sellers: they may be granted tax holidays and preferential loans, while the marketplace itself may be allowed to use Russian Post warehouses instead of the burned-down logistics hubs. The company will likely receive a preferential loan.
But this raises the question of where to get a trillion rubles if the federal budget deficit has already reached 5.7 trillion rubles, 1.5 times the amount planned for the entire year. Still, we assume that lending will take place, although evidently not in the amount the company needs. And this is where things become even more interesting, since the state loan will likely be provided through VTB Bank.
Could Wildberries drag the russian federation’s financial sector down with it?
VTB has been actively cooperating with the marketplace for a long time.
According to Denis Shtilerman, chief designer and co-owner of the Ukrainian long-range weapons manufacturing company Fire Point, strikes on Wildberries and its closest competitor, the Ozon marketplace, could destabilize the russian federation’s financial system.
“Now we need to finish off Wildberries and Ozon; this is essential. It will cause the collapse of the banking system — they are among the main borrowers,” he explained.
According to Shtilerman, Wildberries is one of the largest corporate borrowers in Russia, while the Russian state-owned bank VTB has placed its bet specifically on the development of this marketplace.
“Things were already not going very well at VTB, and now trillions of rubles in loans will turn out to be irretrievably lost. And this could bring down the second-largest bank in Russia. And this must be continued,” Fire Point’s chief designer is convinced.
Economist Vitaliy Shapran also confirmed in a comment to UNN that the bank and the marketplace cooperate closely.
"VTB planned to plug the hole in its balance sheet at Wildberries’ expense, while Wildberries, for its part, used the services of insurers controlled by VTB. The attack on Wildberries disrupted VTB’s current plans; this is an established fact," he says.
The institution’s financial indicators had been deteriorating even before the attacks began and continue to decline. The bank has already reported worsening results: net profit for the first half of the year was nearly 20% below forecast, while expectations for the second half of the year were also revised sharply downward. In addition, the bank has already begun restricting depositors’ access to their money. According to Shapran, this is a forced measure, but it may be long-term.
According to the economist, VTB may receive liquidity from Russia’s Central Bank, but the latter is in no hurry to take action because it is expensive.
Marketplaces and sellers were already in a fairly unfavorable position because of rising logistics costs following the attacks on oil refineries. Now, however, the turnover of trading platforms has fallen by at least 10%, according to various estimates. Thousands of Russians have been left without work, the funds of many small business owners have been frozen, and goods have either been destroyed or are facing delivery problems.
Analysts’ estimates of the scale of the consequences of the attacks on marketplace warehouse infrastructure vary. Would this, by itself, cause a large-scale collapse of the banking system? Unlikely. But destabilization should be expected, if only because the financial sector will have to contend with a wave of non-performing loans. In addition, a further socioeconomic effect is emerging from the losses suffered by ordinary Russians.
The Russian economy, which is under the influence of sanctions, has already suffered a significant blow from strikes on oil-refining facilities. The domestic fuel consumption deficit has reached 35%. Now the financial sector has also begun to wobble.
"The Kremlin has no stabilization instruments other than agreements with Iran and the Houthis to destabilize the Middle East in order to drive up oil prices. The current economic crisis in the Russian Federation has gone very far and, as the first half of 2026 shows, this crisis can be treated with high prices for Russian oil, but over a fairly long period—from six months. It is unlikely that the Kremlin will succeed," Vitaliy Shapran believes.