Russia has the means to strike administrative buildings in the center of Kyiv, but it is unable to destroy protected underground facilities and shelters where Ukraine's military-political leadership may be located; to hit such targets, the Kremlin would either have to use strategic aviation directly over Kyiv or resort to tactical nuclear weapons, which currently seems unrealistic. At the same time, Moscow may resort to attacks on the government quarter or diplomatic missions to demonstrate escalation and psychological pressure. Military expert Oleksandr Kovalenko stated this in an exclusive comment to UNN.
Is Russia capable of hitting "decision-making centers"
Following Volodymyr Zelenskyy's statements regarding the threat of strikes on so-called "decision-making centers" in Kyiv, the topic of possible attacks on the government quarter has once again become a subject of discussion. According to Oleksandr Kovalenko, technically Russia has specific means to hit highly protected objects, but their practical application is almost impossible.
Russia has such means, but they are essentially of two types. The first is free-fall bombs, which must be dropped from a strategic missile-carrying bomber such as the Tu-22M3 or Tu-95MS. But for this, the aircraft must fly directly over Kyiv. And the probability that it would be shot down immediately is nearly 100%
The second option, according to him, is the use of tactical nuclear weapons.
The other means are missiles with a tactical nuclear warhead. But it is obvious that Russia will not go for this. They will not do it
What Russian missiles can actually destroy
Kovalenko notes that in practice, Russia is only capable of destroying the surface part of administrative or government buildings, but cannot reach deeply protected underground facilities.
All the Russians can realistically afford are strikes on surface objects. These could be "Iskanders," 9M723 ballistic missiles, Kh-47M2 "Kinzhal," Kh-22, or Kh-32. But exactly what is on the surface will be destroyed
According to the expert, the depth of strategic facilities in Kyiv and other cities makes them virtually unreachable for conventional weapons.
The depth at which strategic facilities and decision-making centers in Ukraine are located is unreachable for conventional weapons. That is, they can destroy the nominal surface of Bankova, but if the top military-political leadership is in a shelter, they will not be able to eliminate them
Why the Kremlin might resort to strikes on the government quarter
At the same time, the expert does not rule out that Russia might deliberately attack administrative buildings in Kyiv to increase psychological pressure and demonstrate readiness for escalation.
We have already seen cases where missiles landed near the Cabinet of Ministers. Therefore, such strikes cannot be ruled out. The Russians may do this to demonstrate their lack of control, as if to say – they must be negotiated with, otherwise they will start hitting everything in a row
In his opinion, the more difficult the situation becomes for Russia on the front and on the diplomatic front, the more aggressively it behaves.
It is like a cornered predator that starts attacking even a stronger opponent. The Russians act the same way. They are increasingly hitting civilians and infrastructure, trying to attract attention to themselves and demonstrate that they are still capable of escalation
Are strikes on embassies possible
Oleksandr Kovalenko also admits that Russia may resort to strikes near foreign diplomatic missions in Kyiv.
I do not even rule out strikes on areas where embassies are located. They have already demonstrated similar behavior before, when they carried out strikes in the immediate vicinity of the Azerbaijani embassy. Therefore, the probability of such provocations exists
At the same time, the expert believes that Russia is unlikely to go beyond the use of conventional weapons.
On the Cabinet of Ministers, the Verkhovna Rada, Bankova – yes, theoretically they can carry out strikes. But they are unlikely to go beyond the use of conventional weapons
Should Ukraine respond with strikes on Moscow
Commenting on Ukraine's possible response to strikes on administrative objects in Kyiv, Kovalenko emphasized that symbolic attacks on Russian government buildings do not have much military sense.
We can hit the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Moscow, the Kremlin, the FSB on Lubyanka, and the GRU buildings. Technically, it is possible. But I don't think there will be more benefit from that than from a burning Ryazan oil refinery
According to him, it is much more effective for Ukraine to continue systematic strikes on Russia's critical military and energy infrastructure than to waste resources on symbolic targets.