Global carbon dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels reached a record high of 38.1 billion tons in 2025. Despite the active development of renewable energy, the growth of global energy consumption outweighs decarbonization efforts, and scientists warn that the carbon budget, which allows keeping warming within 1.5°C, is almost exhausted. This is reported by Global Carbon Budget, writes UNN.
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Decarbonization of energy systems is taking place in many countries, but this is not enough to offset the growth in global energy demand.
Emissions from land-use change (e.g., deforestation) are projected to decrease to 4.1 billion tons in 2025, so total CO₂ emissions will be slightly lower than last year.
After the 2023–2024 El Niño weather phenomenon, which caused heat and drought in many regions, CO₂ absorption by natural ecosystems ("terrestrial uptake") this year has returned to pre-El Niño levels.
This year's report – published alongside a new article in the journal Nature – examines the impact of climate change on terrestrial and oceanic carbon sinks. It states that 8% of the increase in atmospheric CO₂ concentrations since 1960 is due to climate change weakening the ability of land and oceans to absorb carbon.
The report notes that the remaining carbon budget to limit global warming to 1.5°C is practically exhausted.
With no signs of urgently needed reductions in global emissions, atmospheric CO₂ levels — and with them, the dangerous consequences of global warming — continue to rise.
The research team included representatives from the University of Exeter, the University of East Anglia (UEA), the CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München (LMU), the Alfred Wegener Institute, and over 90 other scientific institutions worldwide.
As CO₂ emissions are still rising, keeping global warming below 1.5°C is no longer realistic. The remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C — 170 billion tons of CO₂ — will be exhausted by 2030 at current emission levels. We estimate that climate change is already reducing the total carbon uptake by land and ocean — this is a clear signal from Planet Earth that we need to radically reduce emissions.
Professor Corinne Le Quéré from the University of East Anglia added that efforts to combat climate change are visible: 35 countries have managed to reduce their emissions while developing their economies — twice as many as a decade ago — and significant progress has been made in reducing dependence on fossil fuels. But this progress is too fragile to ensure a stable reduction in global emissions. The negative impact of climate change on natural carbon sinks is a concern and highlights the need for urgent action.
Key findings of the 2025 Global Carbon Budget:
- China's emissions in 2025 are projected to be +0.4% — growth is slowing due to a moderate increase in energy consumption and rapid development of renewable energy.
- India's emissions will increase by +1.4% — also below previous trends. An early monsoon reduced the need for cooling in the hottest months, and the development of renewables led to minimal growth in coal consumption.
- The US (+1.9%) and the EU (+0.4%) will show an increase in emissions in 2025 after several years of decline due to colder weather and other factors.
- Japan's emissions (included in the forecast for the first time) will decrease by 2.2%, which is consistent with recent trends.
For the rest of the world, emissions are projected to grow by 1.1%.
The increase in CO₂ emissions in 2025 comes from all types of fuel: coal +0.8%, oil +1%, natural gas +1.3%.
Emissions from international aviation will increase by 6.8% (exceeding pre-COVID levels), and from international shipping will remain stable.
Over the period 2015–2024, emissions from permanent deforestation remain high — about 4 billion tons of CO₂ per year, while reforestation offsets only half of these emissions.
Total CO₂ emissions (fossil + land-use change) grew more slowly in the last decade (0.3% per year) compared to the previous one (1.9% per year).
The remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C is practically exhausted — only 170 billion tons of CO₂, which is equivalent to four years at 2025 emission levels.
The Global Carbon Budget report, prepared by an international team of over 130 scientists, provides an annual, peer-reviewed update, relying on proven methodologies and full research transparency.