Economist Oleh Pendzin shared his forecast for the hryvnia exchange rate for 2025, UNN reports. According to him, if there are no significant economic shocks or so-called "black swans," the hryvnia to the dollar may rise to 47.5 by the end of the year.
I have repeatedly predicted that we would celebrate the New Year with the 42+ exchange rate. And so it happened. The state budget for 2025 envisages an average annual exchange rate of 45 hryvnia to the dollar. This means that by the end of the year, we may see the exchange rate at 47+, possibly 47.5
He added that these figures are in line with budget forecasts and are likely to be met. According to the expert, the National Bank of Ukraine remains a key player in the foreign exchange market, as it is virtually the only seller of foreign currency. This allows it to maintain exchange rate stability unless unforeseen situations occur.
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Financial expert and co-founder of Ukraine's first fintech ecosystem Concord Fintech Solutions Olena Sosedka predicts that the hryvnia exchange rate to the dollar will be 45-47 hryvnia in 2025.
According to her, the value of the currency will be affected by the following factors: military operations, reduced exports, and the continued growth of production costs.
In addition, business closures and the tax burden will increase pressure on the hryvnia. Olena Sosiedka reminded that, according to official data, about 162 thousand individual entrepreneurs closed their businesses in Ukraine in 2023. In 2024, the number of sole proprietors who ceased their activities reached 210 thousand, which was a record high in recent years.
"Mass closure of businesses reduces tax revenues to the budget and decreases business activity," emphasized Olena Sosedka.
According to the financial expert, despite the difficult economic situation, the assistance of international financial organizations can play an important role in stabilizing the economy.
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Earlier, Olena Sosiedka in a commentary to UNN noted that the dollar is likely to continue to rise by the end of the year.
In general, by 2025, according to the expert, the dollar price may rise by about 2 hryvnias, to 42-43 hryvnias.