Will deposit rates rise - NBU has issued a forecast

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Customer funds in banks increased, primarily due to households. Financial institutions expect an increase in deposit rates and the cost of funding.

Banks are attracting more funds from clients, primarily households, and expect deposit rates for businesses and households to rise. This is evidenced by the results of the NBU survey on bank funding for the third quarter of 2026, UNN reports.

Details

The volume of client funds in banks increased, primarily those of households, while the cost of attracting them rose mainly due to the increased cost of business funds

- the NBU said on October 22.

The regulator briefly outlined the results of the survey for the third quarter of 2026:

  • the volume of banks’ liabilities increased overall, mainly due to growth in household funds;
    • the volume of wholesale funding has been growing since mid-2025, primarily due to loans attracted from international financial organizations and development banks;
      • going forward, banks expect an increase in the volume of household and corporate funds, as well as wholesale funding;
        • the average cost of borrowing rose due to the increased cost of corporate funds and, to some extent, household funds, while the cost of wholesale funds remained almost unchanged;
          • banks forecast an increase in the cost of funding and higher deposit rates for businesses and households, as well as an increase in the cost of wholesale funding;
            • the share of liabilities in foreign currency increased slightly, but it is expected to remain unchanged going forward;
              • the maturity of funding increased, and financial institutions expect it to continue increasing;
                • the majority of banks reported an increase in total capital over the past 12 months and expect this trend to continue;
                  • banks once again identified profitability as the key factor behind the increase in capital;
                    • for the first time since the first quarter of 2025, respondents expect the cost of capital to rise.

                      For reference

                      The survey on bank funding was conducted from September 16 to October 7, 2026, among bank managers responsible for liability management. Responses were provided by 25 financial institutions accounting for 95% of the banking system’s total assets. The survey results reflect the respondents’ views and are not NBU estimates or forecasts.

                      NBU recorded high rates of lending to businesses and individuals21.04.26, 16:21

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