Ukraine is already striking Russian logistics at distances of up to 120 kilometers from the front line thanks to Hornet strike drones equipped with artificial intelligence systems. At the same time, it is too early to speak of "full control" over the logistical corridors to Crimea, Donetsk, or the Rostov direction. Military expert Oleksandr Kovalenko stated this in a commentary to UNN.
No full control over Russian logistics yet
In recent days, information has been actively spreading in the media that after Ukraine received American Hornet drones, the AFU allegedly fully control Russian logistics in the occupied territories. However, the expert urges not to exaggerate current capabilities.
It is too early to say so. I don't like the phrasing "fully control," because there is no full control over logistics right now. It is partial
According to him, Ukrainian units already have confirmed results of strikes on Russian logistics in the deep rear.
There is the work of the First Army Corps of the NSU "Azov" in Donetsk, Makiivka, and Mariupol. We are indeed flying 80–120 kilometers from the line of combat engagement. This is verified. Strikes are being carried out on motor transport, trucks, and logistical routes. But this has not yet been scaled enough to speak of 24/7 full control
Thousands of drones needed for a true "kill zone"
The expert emphasized that to create a full-fledged "kill zone" over the occupied territories, Ukraine needs significantly more such drones and specialized units.
For this, we need more of these assets. They need to be used at least on the scale that the Russians are currently using in certain directions. If we talk about the entire line of combat engagement, we are no longer talking about hundreds. It could be thousands of air drones daily, perhaps even more
He added that currently, the leading unit in using such systems is "Azov," but much broader control is needed.
It's not just about the Donetsk or Mariupol area. It's the Berdyansk direction, Tokmak, Melitopol, the southern part of the Kherson region, roads to Skadovsk, Armyansk, the P-47 and P-57 logistical highways. All of this must be controlled. And for this, both units and a large number of appropriate assets are needed
Hornet are not FPV drones
Separately, Kovalenko explained exactly which drones are being used for the famous strikes on Mariupol, Donetsk, and other deep rear areas of the occupiers.
These are specifically Hornets. FPV drones do not fly that far. Even fiber-optic FPVs currently have a maximum range of about 40–50 kilometers. They don't work at 80 or 120 kilometers. Therefore, all these strikes on Mariupol and Donetsk are specifically the Hornet
According to the expert, Ukraine is also developing its own analogues of such systems.
Ukraine is creating its own drones, similar in functionality to the Hornet, and some are already in use. But for now, it is primarily the Hornet being used for such strikes
Do the Russians have an analogue?
In the expert's opinion, Russia currently does not have a full-fledged analogue of such drones, although it uses similar solutions based on "Shaheds."
In essence, for them, it's the same "Shahed." Previously, they installed Starlink on them; now they use GSM modems. But the principle remains the same. We haven't yet observed any fundamentally new assets that would be an analogue to the Hornet
Do such drones open the way for a counteroffensive?
Kovalenko believes that the systematic destruction of Russian logistics in the intermediate rear could eventually create conditions for Ukrainian offensive actions, but this is a long process.
Breaking logistics is difficult and long-term. It won't happen in two or three weeks or even two or three months. But we will see the effect. There will be more and more such strikes. And if we reach the same parameters of control over the intermediate rear that we currently have in the near rear, Russia will not be able to properly supply its forward units
He emphasized that the main consequence could be the weakening of the occupiers' defense.
For us, the most important thing is not even stopping the enemy's offensive, but the fact that they won't be able to hold the defense. Their defense could simply start to crumble
Why the Russians will find themselves in a worse situation
The expert also explained why a potential Ukrainian counteroffensive and the Russian response with drones would not be mirror situations.
There is a fundamental difference. If we advance in the Zaporizhzhia or Kherson regions, we are talking about territories squeezed between our troops and the Black and Azov Seas. The Russians are limited in maneuver there. For us, maneuver is the entire territory of Ukraine. For them, it is effectively a corridor to Crimea
According to Kovalenko, after a breakthrough, Russian troops could find themselves trapped.
They have nowhere to retreat except to Crimea or Russian territory. And Crimea is an even more cramped territory. Maneuver is generally limited there. It's 20,000 square kilometers where all positional areas are predictable. For them, it's a much more difficult situation
Drone warfare will become the main feature of the front
Kovalenko is convinced that the war is gradually moving into a phase of total control of logistics by drones, and technological superiority in this area will determine the success of future operations.
We have already adapted to drone warfare on the line of combat engagement. Now it is gradually moving into the intermediate rear. And whoever scales these technologies faster will gain a strategic advantage