The United States expects oil supply disruptions caused by the war surrounding Iran and restrictions on the operation of the Strait of Hormuz to last until early 2027. Bloomberg reports this, citing a forecast by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, writes UNN.
Details
According to EIA estimates, an average of 4.9 million barrels of oil per day passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the second quarter of 2026. By comparison, in the fourth quarter of 2025, before the start of the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran, the figure was 21.6 million barrels per day.
Oil edges lower amid Oman-Iran talks on the Strait of Hormuz - Reuters11.08.26, 17:23
Despite a brief pause in hostilities, the situation in global energy markets remains tense. An agreement between Iran and Oman to reopen the Strait of Hormuz has not yet been reached, although officials report progress in the negotiations.
Fuel prices may rise
Due to the prolonged disruptions, consumers worldwide may face another increase in fuel prices and inflation. The EIA raised its forecast for gasoline and diesel prices in 2026 by 3.7% and 5.4%, respectively. The forecast for the retail price of gasoline in 2027 was also increased by 6.5% compared with the estimate from a month earlier.
The exact volume of oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz is difficult to determine in real time because vessels conceal data about their activities. At the same time, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said that an average of about 9 million barrels of oil per day had passed through the strait over the past week.
Drone strike on oil facility in western Libya causes massive fire11.08.26, 20:47
According to an EIA estimate, the reduction in Middle East production decreased from 7.5 million barrels per day in June to approximately 5.5 million in July. At the same time, the figure could rise to 6.6 million barrels per day in the third quarter.
Several countries in the region cut production due to limited access to global markets, placing additional strain on available oil storage capacity.
If threats to vessels carrying Saudi oil in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait area do not lead to further production cuts, the EIA expects most oil flows and trading operations to return to prewar levels by early 2027.