The offensive operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kursk region demonstrated a shortage of Defense reserves in Russia. Therefore, rumors about a new wave of mobilization are increasingly spreading in the Russian Federation. This was stated in the Center for countering disinformation under the national security and Defense Council, reports UNN.
Details
Analysts note that the Russian troops do not have time to replenish losses on the front line, and since May 2024 they have an absolute record for monthly personnel losses exceeding 30-40 thousand.
In addition, the situation was sharply worsened by the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kursk region.
According to preliminary estimates, to compensate for the exhaustion and rotate the troops deployed in Ukraine, Putin will need from 300 to 500 thousand new fighters over the next 12 months.
Therefore, the situation in which the main part of the elite Russian troops was disposed of in Ukraine encourages the Kremlin to think again about announcing a second wave of mobilization.
However, the GPA is confident that Putin is holding back from mobilization, because this will cause increased resistance in society. In particular, this was the case in 2022, when the conscription of 300 thousand reservists caused a surge of protests by Russians and provoked the flight of a million men of military age from the country.
Secondly, even the existing units of the Russian army have a shortage of equipment of 60% -70%. Therefore, an additional 300 thousand conscripts who have nothing to arm, not only cannot perform combat tasks, but will also feel hopeless and wait for defeat, will add to the Russian statistics of the dead, wounded and prisoners.
In addition, the Center for Countering Disinformation notes that sanctions pressure and war costs have so exhausted the Russian budget that hundreds of times less resources have been allocated for payments to participants of the so-called "counterterrorism operation" in the Kursk region than for Russian soldiers participating in the "SVO" in Ukraine.
За словами путіна, на "сво" перебуває майже 700 тисяч росіян14.06.24, 23:17
Experts note that so far Putin has avoided unpopular decisions, and Kremlin officials reassure the population of the Russian Federation, saying that there is no need to mobilize due to the situation in the Kursk region, there are enough fighters at the front.
Despite this, the Kremlin has focused on calls for patriotism, proposals to increase payments to contract workers, and luring people from the poorest regions of the Russian Federation
Recall
Bloomberg said that The Kremlin may announce a general mobilization due to the lack of military personnel to cover losses at the front. Russia needs about 500,000 new soldiers over the next 12 months to compensate for the depletion of troops in Ukraine.