Autumn weather with rain and cold has finally settled in Ukraine. Ukrainians have to take autumn jackets out of their closets and go outside wearing hats. When to expect the first snow, and what the weather will be like in winter - we tell you in the UNN material.
Winter weather in Ukraine
The seasonal forecast for winter will only be available at the end of November, with indicators of trends and monthly temperatures. The calculations available as of today: our specialists noted that all three winter months are expected to be within the norm, from 0 to -6 degrees depending on the region. But this information is constantly being updated. A month ago, November was also expected to be within the norm, but now we see that it may be slightly above the norm.
The forecaster explained that to determine the average monthly temperature, a calculation is made, and then compared with the previous climatic period. Currently, such an analysis shows a tendency for the temperature to rise above the climatic norm.
"For each month, the average monthly temperature is calculated and compared with other values over the last thirty years of the climatic period. Currently, our climatic period lasts from 1990 to 2020. The temperature values are compared with these 30 years. And now the norm, adopted a few years ago, is already slightly higher, but still in November, and in all previous months of this year, everything is slightly above the norm," the forecaster said.
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Natalia Ptukha reported that in different regions, the air temperature may deviate from the norm, but in general, it is still too early to make any specific forecasts for winter.
"There may be changes by region, our country is large. So in different regions, it can be close to the norm, or some decades below the norm, but the general trends remain in a positive direction. That is, there are reasons to expect that winter will also be somewhat warmer. But in general, it is too early to talk about winter – the calculations that exist may still change," Ptukha said.
When will it snow?
Natalia Ptukha also added that in recent years, Ukraine has had unstable snow cover. Previously, it was recorded from the beginning of November. However, now it is an episodic phenomenon.
In recent years, we have had unstable snow cover. This concept is gradually disappearing altogether. Previously, there was snow cover in November, and it disappeared around March. Now, snow cover is episodic; it can simply melt in the middle of winter. For some time, it will not be there, and then it will form again – this is a standard situation given the last decade. This is what climatologists record.
Weather in November
"According to the calculations of world centers, as well as our specialists, November is expected to be slightly above the climatic norm, approximately by one and a half degrees, especially in the first decade, this will be felt. In the western regions, there are such moments that the temperature value may be somewhat higher in relation to the climatic norm. In the eastern regions, in the second decade of November, everything will return to normal, but there are no such calculations that it will be below normal. World centers do not give such forecasts, nor do our specialists," Ptukha explained.
According to Ptukha, an increase in the temperature background can be expected in November. This applies especially to the southern regions and Transcarpathia.
"Even more practical calculations, which are available at the beginning of November, show that the temperature background is rising. If we talk about the beginning, the first days, then the temperature will be 3-9 degrees Celsius at night, and 10-16 degrees Celsius during the day. Only on November 1, in the eastern and northeastern regions, it will be 0-6 degrees Celsius at night, and 6-12 degrees Celsius during the day. In Transcarpathia and the south of the country, it will be somewhat warmer – 6-11 at night, and 13-18 degrees during the day. This is how October will end and with such a temperature background, it will transition into November," the forecaster summarized.
Finally, the forecaster emphasized that reliable forecasts can only be given for the next 5 days, a maximum of two weeks.
"Now no one will say whether it will be warm or cold in winter. There are trends, but no one in the world predicts based on them. Real forecasts that are included in citizens' plans are for 5-7 days. After that, everything can change dramatically. There are calculations for 10 days, for two weeks, but they change, they are updated every six hours. It is absolutely pointless to rely on them with specific values and territories where, what and how it can be," Natalia Ptukha summarized.