Russia has entered an economic tailspin. March 2026 data record a simultaneous deterioration in all key indicators – from business activity to real household incomes. The emerging picture contradicts the Kremlin's official narrative of a "stable" economy, UNN reports with reference to the Foreign Intelligence Service.
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According to intelligence, three-quarters of small and medium-sized businesses report a lack of sufficient profit for development. A month ago, this figure was 57%. Only 8.3% of surveyed entrepreneurs are ready to invest in expanding production, while in February, this figure was 29%. The main obstacles to growth, businesses cite low demand (42%), unaffordable credit costs (33%), and rising expenses (14%).
The Bank of Russia's business climate indicator – one of the key operational indicators of business activity – fell below zero in March 2026. The decline continued uninterrupted since the beginning of the year: 1.5 points in January, 0.2 in February, and another 0.1 in March. The deterioration affected almost all sectors of the economy. Russian enterprises are seriously intent on reducing production
The consumer sector reflects the crisis in real time. In the first two months of 2026 alone, 125 restaurants closed in Moscow; by the end of the year, another 460 establishments are expected to close. The trend is not local: similar processes are recorded in St. Petersburg, Novosibirsk, and Tatarstan. In parallel, the number of classic coffee shops in the country decreased by 13%. In Moscow – minus 12%, in St. Petersburg – minus 23%. The industry, which is traditionally a barometer of the state of the urban middle class, is rapidly shrinking, the intelligence service added.
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Rosstat reports a decrease in the poverty level – from 7.1% to 6.7% last year. However, Levada Center data paint a fundamentally different picture: the share of Russians who assess their income as sufficient for a living wage fell from 48% to 41% in just one month. The gap between official statistics and people's subjective feelings continues to widen.
Social tensions spill over into open protests. Builders in Murmansk went on strike due to wage delays. In temporarily occupied Mariupol, several construction companies involved in the "restoration" of the city destroyed by Russians stopped paying their workers. In Komi, workers of a plywood factory held a spontaneous rally due to months of non-payment. The most acute situation is in Kuzbass, where more than 6,000 miners lost their jobs, most of them have not yet received their earned money, and some have been waiting for payments for more than a year
Intelligence summarizes that aggression against Ukraine is costing Russia more and more – and ordinary Russians are paying for it.