A U.S. military blockade of Iranian ports will eventually deprive Tehran of vital oil revenues, but the regime is likely to withstand this pressure for several months without a major economic crisis or long-term damage to its oil fields, NBC News reports, citing energy industry analysts and two Western officials, according to UNN.
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After the blockade was imposed about a month ago, U.S. President Donald Trump and senior administration officials suggested it would trigger an immediate crisis in Iran's oil sector. Last month, Trump stated that Iran's oil infrastructure could "blow up" within three days because the blockade means Tehran will be unable to export the oil it extracts from its wells.
This scenario, the publication notes, has not materialized. However, the naval blockade has prevented dozens of Iranian tankers from passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran has gradually begun to reduce oil production due to the blockade, and within the next two months, it could exhaust its oil storage capacity and even be forced to shut down some wells. But most analysts say Iran will likely be able to avoid closing wells because a significant amount of its oil can be consumed domestically, allowing most oil fields to continue operating.
According to Western officials and experts, the regime has shown in the past that it can withstand severe economic pressure as long as its grip on power is not under threat.
Iran's leadership will eventually have to face a devastated economy and a frustrated population. But for now, the regime—which is now more than ever dominated by hardline elements of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps—is firmly entrenched, Western officials said.