At the end of April 2026, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine (State Stat) released data illustrating the state of education in the country. The figures show that even now, significantly fewer children are entering the first grades of schools – about 300,000 – 320,000 each academic year. In the long term, schools will lose 60,000 – 90,000 students annually (15 – 25% of the total number).
What this means for Ukraine, whether premature aging of the nation awaits us, and whether small-capacity schools will remain in rural areas in just 4–5 years, was analyzed by UNN together with Svitlana Aksonova, a leading researcher at the Ptukha Institute of Demography and Quality of Life Problems of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine.
Birth rate in Ukraine: what the statistics show and how it affects the education system
According to data from the Ministry of Justice of Ukraine, 168.7 thousand children were born in Ukraine in 2025. At the same time, 485.2 thousand people died during that same year. That is, for every child born, there were approximately three deaths.
Compared to the previous year, mortality decreased by 2%, but the birth rate also continued to fall — by 4.5%. In practice, this means that significantly more people are dying in Ukraine than are being born.
The birth rate affects the education system with a delay of approximately six years. That is, children born in 2022–2025 will enter the first grades in the late 2020s.
In the 2024–2025 academic year, 278,083 children entered the first grades in Ukraine. This is 36,198 fewer than the previous year, when there were 314,281 first-graders. Thus, the number of first-graders decreased by approximately 13%.
Schools are already entering a period of gradual decrease in student flows. Small communities, rural schools, and institutions in regions from which many families with children have departed will feel this most acutely. In large cities, the situation may seem more stable due to internal migration, but this does not cancel out the general trend.
Schools in Ukraine today: how many there are and how they operate
The State Statistics Service notes: as of 2025, there were 11,820 secondary schools operating in the country. Of these, 7,426 are located in rural areas, and 4,394 are in cities.
Comparing this data with 2023, it can be seen that 881 schools have ceased to exist since then.
The number of teachers ready to educate Ukrainian children and adolescents has also decreased. While in 2023, 390.1 thousand teachers worked in urban and rural schools, by 2025 the number was 373.5 thousand. Thus, the total teaching staff at the national level decreased by 16.6 thousand people.
In 2026, education in Ukraine continues to take place in a mixed format: part of the classes are held in person, part remotely. This approach is related to security risks, including the threat of shelling, power supply problems, and the destruction of educational infrastructure.
An additional burden falls on communities hosting internally displaced persons. They must quickly integrate children and youth who moved from other regions into the work of local schools and higher education institutions.
Furthermore, given the active hostilities on the territory of Ukraine, a new reality is entering the lives of schoolchildren, teachers, and parents – underground schools. Significant funds from both the state budget and community budgets are being directed toward the construction and equipment of such facilities.
School closures: will this scenario become inevitable for Ukraine
According to experts in the fields of education and demography, the closure or reorganization of some schools in rural areas may become inevitable, but it will not mean the complete collapse of the state's educational system.
A similar opinion is held by Ella Libanova, Director of the Mykhailo Ptukha Institute for Demography and Social Studies. She believes that schools with 10–12 students cannot provide children and adolescents with access to quality education. Therefore, reforms must be carried out.
"We will introduce various forms of education. It will be necessary to merge schools. A school with 10-12 students is not a normal level of education. A school should be a place for children: for their communication, development, socialization, and only then for acquiring new knowledge," the expert said.
The main reason for the reform is the shortage of personnel, as in rural small-capacity schools, one teacher often teaches half of the school subjects. At the same time, the teacher lacks the necessary professional training to simultaneously teach Ukrainian language, English, algebra, and biology.
"As a demographer, I know that there are many villages and settlements where there are very few children. These children, obviously, cannot get a proper education there. If the same teacher comes and teaches geography and history – I already have doubts. And what if it's chemistry and physics?" the demographer asked Ukrainians rhetorically.
What will happen to schools in 4–5 years: prospects and forecasts
Experts are already saying that in 4–5 years, the Ukrainian school will feel the consequences of the current drop in the birth rate. Children born after the start of the full-scale war will begin to enter the first grades. The new generation will be less numerous than the pre-war cohorts.
As a result, several processes will start simultaneously in the school education system in Ukraine.
First, the number of first-graders will decrease, especially in communities with high migration. Second, pressure on local budgets will grow, as maintaining small-capacity schools will become increasingly difficult. Third, competition between educational institutions for students and teachers will intensify. Fourth, the state will be forced to more quickly review the network of lyceums, gymnasiums, and hub schools.
Svitlana Aksonova, a leading researcher at the Institute of Demography and Quality of Life Problems of the NAS of Ukraine, confirmed in a conversation with UNN journalists: the decline in the birth rate in Ukraine and the departure of some families with children abroad will affect the school education system in the coming years.
"The number of children in classes and schools may decrease, but this does not mean that the country should rush to close educational institutions," the demographer explained her view.
At the same time, Aksonova believes that the decrease in the number of children should not be viewed only as a problem.
"This can also become an opportunity to improve the quality of education. This concerns not only schools but also preschool education, as kindergartens also influence a family's decision regarding the birth of a second or subsequent child," the expert said.
Aksonova recalled the experience of the 1990s, when kindergartens were closed en masse after a sharp drop in the birth rate. When the birth rate began to rise, the system proved unready to accept a larger number of children.
"We already have the experience of the 90s, when there was a massive decline in the birth rate, and kindergartens were closed en masse then. And when the birth rate began to rise, the preschool sector proved unready to accept children," she explained.
Reflecting on the near future of school education in Ukraine, the expert emphasized that work on the quality of educational infrastructure must begin now.
"First of all, we are talking about safe and comfortable shelters in schools. They should not just be a place where children can wait out an air raid alert, but a space where the educational process can continue," Aksonova stressed.
She added: "Shelters must be comfortable, protected, and safe for children. A child should feel comfortable there and be focused on learning."
Prospects for school development in Ukraine
Speaking about the prospects of school education in the coming years, Svitlana Aksonova admitted: the number of children will indeed decrease, and this will affect class sizes and the need for individual schools, especially in rural areas. At the same time, the demographer warned against hasty decisions regarding the mass closure of educational institutions.
According to her, currently some children are being bussed to larger schools, and such an approach may be justified. But it must be implemented very carefully. For this, it is necessary to consider how much time the child spends on the road, whether transport fatigue occurs, and whether this affects learning.
"There will be fewer children, but in my conviction, there is no need to rush with closing schools. We need to focus on improving the quality of education," Aksonova emphasized.
She added that the future of individual schools will also depend on the ability to equip high-quality shelters. If it is impossible to create a safe space in a building where one can not only stay during an alert but also continue the educational process, this will become a serious challenge for the operation of such an institution.
"Not to move towards closure, but specifically towards increasing quality and reducing the load on each teacher and each educational institution," the demographer summarized.
But for this, Ukraine will have to start almost from scratch to develop hub schools, update school buses, invest in shelters, digital tools, and remote and mixed learning formats where justified.
Reminder
Over 30 years, the population of Ukraine has decreased by 20%, from 52.2 million in 1993 to 42 million in 2022. As of the beginning of 2025, about 31.5 million people live in the controlled territory, indicating demographic losses of 10 million due to the war.