russia's series of strikes on Ukraine's energy sector is part of a broader campaign. It is aimed at freezing the country this winter, as well as forcing it and the West to abstain from making political decisions favorable to russia. This is stated in a report by the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW), UNN reports .
Details
Analysts note that russia has repeatedly attacked Ukraine's infrastructure in the fall and winter since the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022. In particular, the aggressor country recently conducted large-scale strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure, namely on November 16-17 and 25-26.
The ISW drew special attention to a series of missile and drone strikes on Ukraine on the night of December 12-13, 2024, which targeted, among other things, the country's energy infrastructure.
The Ukrainian Air Force reported that russian forces launched 94 missiles and 193 Shahed and other drones at Ukraine, including four X-47M2 Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missiles; two Iskander-M ballistic missiles, one KN-23 ballistic missile, 55 X-101 and X-55SM cruise missiles, 24 Kalibr cruise missiles, seven Iskander-K cruise missiles, and one X-59/69 cruise missile. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces shot down 80 X-101, X-55SM, Kalibr and Iskander-K cruise missiles; one Iskander-M; and 80 drones, while 105 other drones were "lost" to Ukrainian countermeasures and six drones flew into Russian and Belarusian airspace as of 11:30 a.m. local time.
The document also contains the kremlin's reaction. In particular, the ISW notes that the russian Defense Ministry stated that russian troops launched the strike on December 12-13 in response to the Ukrainian strike onе taganrog, rostovo region, on December 11, which used US long-range ATACMS missiles provided by the West. However, according to ISW, the russians probably planned to carry out such a strike regardless of what happened, and conveniently use the December 11 strike to justify their ongoing attacks on Ukraine's energy sector.
Taking into account all the data, the experts concluded that russian messages are likely aimed at achieving two goals:
First, to mitigate the calls of the russian ultranationalist community for retaliation for Ukraine's strikes against russia;
Secondly, the messages are intended to support the kremlin's reflexive control campaign aimed at forcing Western countries to accept Ukraine's use of Western-supplied weapons and future peace talks that would benefit russia.
Recall
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy saidthat the russians were specifically waiting for frosty weather to strike at Ukraine's energy facilities to make things worse for people.