Damage to the transport infrastructure in the Chonhar direction and systematic strikes on Russian logistics in occupied Crimea and southern Ukraine are gradually complicating the supply of the Russian grouping of forces. At the same time, one should not yet expect a rapid collapse of the front or a "gesture of goodwill" from the occupiers. This opinion was expressed by military expert Ivan Stupak in an exclusive comment to UNN.
Logistics through Crimea remain vital for the Russian grouping
In recent weeks, Ukrainian forces have launched a series of strikes on logistics facilities in the occupied territories and Crimea. In particular, there were reports of damage to infrastructure in the Chonhar area. Against this background, assumptions about a possible deterioration in the supply of Russian troops in the southern direction are appearing more frequently.
However, according to Stupak, for now, one should avoid excessive optimism and assess the situation as pragmatically as possible.
"Let's start without clickbait headlines. We have been burned by this many times before when we expected quick positive results. For now, we are talking about a gradual reduction in the Russians' ability to use Crimea to supply their troops in southern Ukraine. We are not interested in civilian problems on the peninsula, nor in the shortage of certain goods or empty store shelves. The main goal is to significantly reduce military logistics from Crimea towards the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions,"
According to him, this refers to the supply of ammunition, fuel, equipment, medicines, food, and personnel.
"If we manage to reduce this supply by at least 30%, it will already be a very serious result. This will mean fewer shellings of Kherson, less activity of Russian drones and artillery. Further, this will affect the situation in the area of Stepnohirsk, Orikhiv, and Huliaipole. That is, we can gradually reduce the enemy's offensive capabilities and buy time for ourselves,"
Strikes on highways from Rostov also matter
Stupak notes that Crimea is not the only supply route for the Russian army. A significant portion of resources comes from Russian territory through the Rostov region, Taganrog, and Mariupol.
At the same time, even a partial disruption of several routes simultaneously can create tangible difficulties for the occupation forces.
"Of course, the Russians have large rear areas behind the Donetsk region. But if you cut logistics in several places at once, the effect will accumulate. Our drones are now actively working in these directions as well. It cannot be said that all supplies go only through Crimea or only through Rostov. But if we gradually hit all routes, the result will be noticeable,"
Kinburn Spit could become a gray zone
Separately, the expert commented on reports of a possible reduction in the presence of Russian troops on the Kinburn Spit.
According to him, holding this area remains extremely difficult for both the occupiers and the Ukrainian side.
"It is difficult to hide there, difficult to accumulate supplies, and very difficult to supply units. Therefore, I do not rule out that the Russians may optimize their presence. Not leave completely, but pull back a few kilometers closer to their main positions, maintaining control over the territory with the help of drones, detectors, sensors, and other surveillance means,"
At the same time, he admits that in the future, part of the spit may turn into a so-called gray zone.
"If there are no Russians there, but no Ukrainian troops either, that is already a positive result. Formally, this is Ukrainian territory. Even if it is marked as a gray zone on maps, it will mean that the Russians were unable to fully hold it,"
A "gesture of goodwill" should not be counted on
Despite the logistics difficulties, Stupak is skeptical about the prospect of a voluntary withdrawal of Russian troops from the occupied part of the Kherson region.
"To be absolutely honest, the probability of such a scenario is close to zero. Russia has included these territories in its constitution, established its administrations and management structures there. I don't see a scenario right now where they just pack their things and leave. They might reduce their presence, they might pull back forces, but leave the territory completely — not yet,"
Russians have limited time to find a countermeasure
The expert paid special attention to the current campaign of Ukrainian strikes on enemy logistics.
In his opinion, the Russian command is actively looking for ways to neutralize this threat; however, for now, Ukraine maintains a certain initiative.
"I would estimate this at about two months. If by July the Russians do not find an effective countermeasure, we can say that our tactics are working very successfully. But this war has shown that they gradually adapt to almost any new threats,"
He recalled that over time, Russian troops learned to more effectively counter a number of Western weapons systems.
"They adapted to the use of HIMARS, learned to shoot down some ATACMS. Similarly, they are now studying our drones, analyzing debris, and looking for weak spots. New electronic warfare (EW) tools, additional sensors, and convoy escort systems may appear. I don't even rule out 'Mad Max' style convoys, where fuel tankers and trucks will be accompanied by armored vehicles and armed guards,"
At the same time, he emphasized that even if Russia finds a partial countermeasure, it will not mean the loss of the Ukrainian advantage.
"The effectiveness of our strikes may decrease, but during this time we are capable of inflicting very serious damage on the enemy. In addition, we should not forget that it is not only we who are adapting. Our military and manufacturers are also constantly improving their means of destruction,"