The dollar exchange rate in exchange offices has reached almost 41 hryvnia. This is due to the fact that Ukraine's trade balance is deteriorating due to the depletion of grain reserves and energy problems. This opinion was expressed in an exclusive commentary to UNN by Oleksandr Parashchiy, Head of Analytical Department at Concorde Capital.
At the end of last year, Olena Sosedka, co-founder of Ukraine's first fintech ecosystem Concord Fintech Solutions, predicted that the value of a dollar could reach 42 hryvnias in 2024.
"The dollar is fully under the control of the NBU. Why does it allow (it to grow - ed.) - first, our trade balance is gradually deteriorating as the grain reserves of the last harvest are depleted, plus we see that our energy trade balance is deteriorating a bit, which increases the excess demand for the dollar. That is, this is an objective reason why there are at least market imbalances in demand for the dollar, which are worsening," Paraschiy said.
He added that the National Bank allows the dollar to gradually rise against the hryvnia. "If we look at the chart, we see almost a straight line of the dollar against the hryvnia since the beginning of the year. This means that these are largely targeted actions of the NBU," he said.
Parashchiy does not rule out that the exchange rate will reach 42 hryvnia to the dollar by the end of the year, plus or minus 30 kopecks. "The story will be like this: by the end of the year we will be moving towards 42, and if there is an excess supply of currency, the dollar will sink," he said.
Recall
As Olena Sosedka has previously noted, the future of the Ukrainian banking system is the subject of active discussion among economists and government officials. One of the strategies for developing the system is to concentrate bank capital and privatize state-owned banks. It should be understood that the banking system does not exist on its own - it is a "litmus test of the level of economic development of a country and the trends that are cultivated in it." Therefore, among the important issues facing the banking system today, the expert noted the provision of clear and uniform rules for the banking sector, for example, effective monitoring of banking transactions and other important conditions for the development of the industry.
In general, Olena Sosedka believes that the Ukrainian banking sector needs to change, especially when implementing the Open Banking-2025 concept , which is a completely new role model for our market. These issues concern not only legal but also technical aspects, such as common standards and ways to control technical processes. In particular, this is important for the implementation of the same concept of open banking approved by the National Bank of Ukraine.