The Russian economy is rapidly deteriorating amid rising taxes, sanctions pressure, and a contraction in business activity. In the first quarter of 2026, some enterprises have already ceased operations, and experts predict a further deepening of the recession and increasing risks for the country's financial system. This was reported by the Foreign Intelligence Service, according to UNN.
The Russian government is unable to stop the recession in the Russian economy. At the same time, the worsening situation is caused by both an increase in the tax burden (from January 1, 2026, the VAT rate was raised from 20% to 22%) and the slowdown of social networks and internet services, as well as rising costs for logistics, labor, and marketing. As a result, during the first quarter of 2026 alone, 6% of enterprises ceased operations,
According to forecasts, in the second half of the year, a significant portion of Russian companies are preparing for staff reductions, and about 30% of small and medium-sized businesses may leave the market.
The economic situation in Russia's regions is rapidly deteriorating. The deficit of the consolidated budgets of the subjects of the Russian Federation at the end of January–February reached almost 1 trillion rubles ($12.5 billion). At the same time, due to the lack of incentives and increased tax pressure, the number of regions demonstrating a growing budget imbalance is increasing,
Sanctions pressure and the senseless policy of the federal authorities have led to the failure of plans for collecting customs payments. In particular, last year the Federal Customs Service of the Russian Federation replenished the Russian budget by 5.9 trillion rubles compared to 7.35 trillion rubles in 2024 (–20%). This is the lowest figure since the beginning of the full-scale war against Ukraine. It should be noted that in 2022–2025, the foreign trade balance of the Russian Federation decreased almost threefold (from 337 to 125 billion USD).
In 2026, the negative trend continues; based on the results of January–February, the positive foreign trade balance decreased by 33% (to 14.1 billion USD) compared to the same period last year (21 billion USD).
Simultaneously, the state of the Russian banking sector is deteriorating (in 2025, the net profit of Russian banks decreased by 8%), which is on the verge of a systemic banking crisis. At the same time, the current stability of the sector is ensured by the dominance of state banks ("Sberbank" and "VTB" in 2025 provided more than 60% of the net profit of the entire Russian banking system), large-scale restructurings of distressed assets, and regulatory easing.
A number of financial indicators (an increase in the share of "bad" loans, payment arrears, and the closure of bank branches) indicate the growing vulnerability of the banking sector and an increased likelihood of a full-scale banking crisis.
At the same time, the systematic distortion of macroeconomic statistics is used by the Kremlin to create a false impression among external consumers regarding the relative resilience of the Russian economy to sanctions pressure and colossal military spending.