The Russian army has slowed its offensive in Ukraine and is currently unable to quickly seize the entire Donbas. This was reported by The New York Times, citing military analysts and data from organizations tracking the front line, according to UNN.
Details
According to the OSINT analysis group Black Bird Group, the pace of Russia's advance over the last three months has been the worst since 2023. If the current dynamics persist, it would take Russia decades to fully occupy the Donbas.
The publication notes that one of the main reasons for the slowdown is drones, which have changed the nature of the war. Mass breakthroughs by armored vehicles have almost disappeared, and Russian troops are increasingly using small-group tactics, attempting to stealthily infiltrate positions using infantry or motorcycles.
According to the publication, in 2026, some Russian drone units lost access to the Starlink satellite internet service, which was used for drone coordination. Additionally, restrictions on Telegram within the Russian Federation, which the Kremlin is introducing to control the internet, have worsened communication among the Russian military.
The publication writes that Russia began to fall short of its recruitment targets for contract soldiers in early 2026. Against this backdrop, doubts are growing in the US and Europe regarding how long the Kremlin can maintain the current pace of the war without a new large-scale mobilization.
According to the publication, Ukraine has gained an advantage in certain sectors of the front thanks to the development of drones, technology, and new combat tactics. However, Russia is also actively expanding its own unmanned units.
The New York Times notes that Russia is hoping not so much to seize the entire Donbas militarily as to force it through negotiations.