One of Russia's largest state banks has admitted that the liquid part of the National Welfare Fund (NWF) could be completely depleted within a year. This was reported by the Center for Countering Disinformation of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine (CPD), informs UNN.
Details
It is noted that, according to estimates by the Gazprombank Center for Economic Forecasting, at current oil prices ($36-40 per barrel), the fund's resources will last for approximately 1-1.3 years. If the price drops to $30-35, the fund could be depleted before the end of the current year.
Funds from the fund are actively used to cover the budget deficit, which arises due to falling oil and gas revenues. The threshold price is $59 per barrel, and anything below that is compensated from reserves. However, the real quotations of Russian Urals oil have been significantly lower than this level for a long time, so the NWF is actively being "eaten away"
They indicate that before the full-scale war, the fund contained $113 billion in liquid assets (6.5% of GDP), and as of today, this amount has decreased by 2.5 times to $52 billion (1.9% of GDP).
"In the event of the NWF's depletion, the Russian authorities will have to sharply cut budget expenditures. For years, the fund financed pension payments and smoothed out the pension system's deficit. Consequently, the Kremlin will literally have to pay for the war with the pensions of Russians," the CPD predicts.
Recall
According to the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine, economic problems in Russia are increasingly affecting the population, which is confirmed by the rapid increase in the number of personal bankruptcies.
Russia's economy exhausted by war, 2026 will be critical - WP23.12.25, 01:00