Since the beginning of the year, inflation in Ukraine has been falling faster than expected by the National Bank. In particular, in March, annual consumer price growth slowed to 3.2%, and this level continued in April. Writes UNN with Reference to the NBU.
Low inflation is largely due to the effects of last year's high yields. Thus, grain and vegetable yields per person last year were the highest in Ukrainian history due to extremely favorable weather conditions. This accordingly affected the prices of food products. For example, raw food products, in particular flour, cereals, sunflower oil and sugar, a number of borscht vegetables were cheaper than a year ago
The National Bank notes that the warm winter also contributed to lower prices for greenhouse products, such as cucumbers and tomatoes. In addition, the blockade on the Polish border forced some producers to sell more goods on the domestic market, which also reduced price pressure. At the same time, measures taken by the government and the NBU also contributed to curbing inflation. In particular, the government has maintained a moratorium on raising tariffs for gas, heat and hot water, and the NBU is monitoring the situation on the foreign exchange market, which helps limit the increase in prices for imported goods.
According to the NBU forecast, inflation will accelerate moderately in the coming months and slightly exceed 8% by the end of the year. This will primarily lead to the exhaustion of the effect of last year's high yields and, probably, slightly lower yields of the new season after last year's records. In addition, the negative impact of the war on business spending will continue
Although inflation will remain within moderate levels this year, it is expected to fall again to the NBU's 5% target in the coming years. The NBU's measures aimed at protecting Hryvnia savings from inflationary depreciation and ensuring stability in the foreign exchange market will play an important role in this process.
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Ukraine is increasing the volume of exports of dairy products, including to the countries of the European Union.