As NASA's record-breaking Artemis II mission strengthens the US position on its way back to the Moon, China's ambition to land astronauts there by 2030 is gaining increasing geopolitical significance and putting pressure on Beijing to meet or accelerate its schedule, Reuters reports, writes UNN.
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This week, four American astronauts on the Artemis II mission flew past the dark side of the Moon, venturing deeper into space than any human before them, and setting the stage for a Moon landing on the Artemis IV mission in 2028.
The planned return of the US to the Moon after more than half a century is being closely monitored in China, which is developing a complete architecture for its first crewed Moon landing, from the Long March-10 rocket to the Mengzhou spacecraft and the Lanyue lunar lander.
In recent years, Beijing has made significant progress, becoming the first country to return samples taken by robots from the near and far sides of the Moon to Earth, and its crewed spaceflight program has reached a high level in space station operations and emergency response in orbit.
"Today, there is no more important goal for China than landing humans on the Moon. This is the most important next step on China's path to space superiority," said Clayton Swope, deputy project director for aerospace security at the US Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
Washington and Beijing are also competing in institutional building efforts as they prepare for a future where humans will have a permanent presence on the Moon. The US-led Artemis Accords for lunar exploration are contrasted with the International Lunar Research Station (ILRS), led by China and Russia.
"The question now is no longer who will get to the Moon first, but who can stay longer and do more," Kang Guohua, a professor of aerospace engineering at Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, which is affiliated with the military, told the Chinese state newspaper Global Times last week.
What stage is China at?
The main obstacle for Beijing will be to secure an entirely new lunar mission architecture within the next four years, demonstrating that all equipment being developed for the 2030 mission, from heavy rockets to spacesuits, can reliably perform on first use, the publication writes.
The China Manned Space Agency stated in 2023 that the mission would be carried out using two Long March-10 rockets, one of which would launch the crewed spacecraft and the other the lunar lander. The two vehicles would have to rendezvous and dock in lunar orbit. Two taikonauts would descend to the surface in the lander, collect samples, then return to lunar orbit, re-dock with the spacecraft, and head back to Earth.
According to the China Manned Space Agency, the Mengzhou spacecraft can carry up to seven astronauts, but the size and composition of the 2030 mission crew have not yet been announced.
China's recent robotic lunar missions have given it valuable experience in communication, rendezvous, and docking around the Moon. But crewed missions place much stricter safety requirements, and critical mission elements, including the rocket and spacecraft, are still in the testing phase.
In February, China conducted the first low-altitude emergency rescue system test for the Long March-10 vehicle with the Mengzhou spacecraft on board at the launch site on Hainan Island. The vehicle's return capsule successfully separated after an emergency abort command and safely splashed down in the sea.
Last year, the ascent and descent capabilities of the Lanyue lunar module were also tested in Hebei province. While these were important milestones, the pace of testing needs to be accelerated if China wants to certify the system for a crewed landing by 2030, the publication notes.
Nevertheless, Swope of CSIS said that China appears to be making steady progress, and it seems "very likely" that it will meet its deadlines.
"China has a history of setting deadlines for space activities and adhering to them precisely, there are no public signs of any errors or obstacles in Beijing's plans for a crewed lunar landing," he said.
Geopolitical stakes
The stakes are not only technical but also geopolitical. As the rivalry between the US and China deepens in trade, technology, and military power, lunar exploration has become another arena of competition.
American analysts point to China's growing defense spending, its use of space diplomacy to enhance its influence abroad, the growth of its private launch sector, and successful robotic missions to the Moon as evidence that Beijing is highly motivated to reach the Moon quickly, even if it avoids race rhetoric in public.
"China may avoid using language that directly hints at a lunar or space race, but their overall strategic goal is to be a hegemon in space," said Kathleen Curley, a research analyst at Georgetown University's Center for Security and Emerging Technologies.
At the same time, China may be moving faster than it admits. Wu Weiren, the chief designer of China's lunar exploration program, told Reuters last year that the 2030 goal was deliberately conservative.
"Eastern people always leave a little room when they speak," he said. "If I can do 10, I tend to say eight or nine."