Global oil markets are heading for a record surplus next year. In 2026, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), there will be an oversupply and a drop in demand, UNN reports.
Details
The International Energy Agency (IEA) stated that global oil markets are heading for a record surplus in 2026. At the same time, demand growth is slowing down, and supply is increasing.
The agency's report indicates that due to the trend leading to oversupply and falling demand, a sharp drop in oil prices is quite likely next year.
Recent data indicate weak demand in major economies. Given that consumer confidence remains weak, a significant recovery currently seems unlikely.
According to the IEA, the price of a barrel of North Sea Brent crude, which is a global benchmark, will fall to $58 next year. This year, the price is close to $69 on average. This could lead to lower gasoline prices, although excise taxes also play an important role at this level.
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It should be noted that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) decided to increase production. Meanwhile, the energy agency concludes that the situation is moving towards a "record surplus of crude oil."
Recall
In 2024, the International Energy Agency predicted a drop in oil consumption; and in 2025 - the formation of a surplus of raw materials. The agency pointed to slowing growth in demand for crude oil due to the use of energy sources with lower emissions.