Systematic strikes by Ukraine on Russian oil refineries can not only cause economic damage but also paralyze Russia's logistics, industry, and management system. The key condition is not individual successful attacks, but their continuity. This opinion was expressed in an exclusive interview with UNN by Russian opposition analyst and economist Vyacheslav Shiryaev, who left for the European Union after the start of the full-scale war.
The Omsk Refinery is not a symbolic strike, but another step towards the critical threshold
After the strike of Ukrainian long-range drones on the Omsk oil refinery, Ukrainian media called this attack historic. At the same time, some experts urged not to overestimate its significance, as Russia retains certain reserves of fuel production.
According to Vyacheslav Shiryaev, such strikes should be assessed not in isolation, but as part of a long-term campaign that has a specific strategic goal.
I will try to explain this as metaphorically as possible. Everything is decided by the last drop that overflows the vessel. Or the last grain of sand that tips the hourglass. Until it falls, nothing happens. But it is this grain that changes everything. The same applies to Russian refineries. What matters is not how many plants have already been hit, but reaching a critical level of capacity loss — approximately 85% of those plants that are within the reach of Ukrainian strike assets. The remaining 15% far in the east will no longer be able to change the situation. That is why the strike on the Omsk Refinery is another step towards that threshold, after which the process will become irreversible
The expert emphasizes that the main significance of this campaign lies not even in material damage, but in demonstrating Ukraine's capabilities.
At this moment, it becomes clear to everyone that Ukraine is capable not just of inflicting painful strikes, but of actually paralyzing the aggressor state. I see no technical problem in disabling all major oil refineries in Russia. The only question is having sufficient resources, systematic approach, and partner support. If Ukraine methodically finishes off every plant that the Russians try to restore, then eventually this system will simply cease to function
Mini-refineries are not capable of compensating for the loss of large enterprises
Recently, there have been assessments that even after a series of strikes, Russia will be able to partially compensate for losses thanks to small oil refineries. Shiryaev categorically disagrees with this opinion.
No, that is impossible. All these small plants, even if gathered together, will not replace one large refinery. Their productivity is incomparable. Therefore, they are not capable of compensating for the loss of main production capacities
Without fuel, not only transport stops, but also the state
According to the analyst, the main mistake is perceiving strikes on refineries solely as economic pressure. He emphasizes that fuel is the basis for the functioning of virtually all sectors of the Russian economy.
Without fuel, nothing works. Cargo is not transported, industrial enterprises do not function, products are not delivered to stores, aviation does not operate. There is no 'saving import' capable of compensating for the loss of domestic processing. If large refineries are consistently knocked out from west to east, Russia can be completely paralyzed
He notes that the Omsk Refinery is actually the last of the largest plants in the eastern part of the country.
Further on, there remain enterprises of a completely different scale. That is why, if Ukraine has enough resources to implement such a campaign, it will either get an extremely strong bargaining chip in negotiations, or force the Kremlin to sit down at the negotiating table. Or, if viewed more broadly, simply win. Everything could be decided in July-August
The only real way out for the Kremlin is to sharply strengthen air defense
UNN also inquired about what tools Russia has left to counter Ukrainian long-range strikes. According to Shiryaev, there is effectively only one option.
The only possibility is to multiply the air defense system. First of all, these are radars, Pantsir systems, mobile fire groups that should cover objects directly at the final stage of the drone's flight. But the problem is that Russia does not have the ability to sharply increase the production of such systems. There is simply nowhere to get them
At the same time, the expert drew attention to another problem of Russian defense.
What I see now is essentially the unhindered operation of Ukrainian drones at a distance of almost 3,000 kilometers. An airplane-like drone flies for almost a day, and it seems that no one sees it at all. In Ukraine, a network of acoustic sensors has been created for this purpose, which track low-altitude targets. Large radars often simply do not see them. And even if they do, Ukrainian intelligence knows the location of these radars, so flight routes are built to bypass them
According to him, the situation directly near the plants themselves is even more indicative.
Judging by the recordings near the Omsk Refinery, the Russians tried to shoot down drones. But this turned out to be insufficient. I was informed from Omsk that seven drones were flying towards the plant – and all seven reached it. This is an incredible indicator. This means that even near strategic objects, they are practically unable to intercept them effectively
In his opinion, the main factor that could prevent Ukraine from implementing this campaign today is only the number of its own means of destruction.
My conclusion is simple – Russia currently has practically nothing to oppose to the systematic destruction of refineries. The only question is whether Ukraine will have enough long-range drones and production rates to maintain this pressure every day
"The Battle of Kursk" of this war
Shyriaiev himself has repeatedly called the campaign of strikes on Russian refineries the "Battle of Kursk" of the modern war. According to him, it is not about symbolic attacks or economic pressure.
I call victory not the rise in gasoline prices and not the losses of the Russian budget. I call victory the paralysis of the economy, logistics, management, and production systems. If all this can be stopped within about forty days, the country will simply lose its ability to wage war
The expert draws a historical analogy.
Remember Petrograd in 1917. Trains do not run, bread is not delivered, the country plunges into chaos, and the war ends in defeat. A paralyzed state cannot not only fight – it is incapable of even governing itself
He emphasizes that Ukraine's goal is not at all to create social discontent.
It is a mistake to think that it is about some kind of "revolt of empty canisters." There will be none. That is not the point. And it is not about inflicting another few billion dollars in losses on Russia. This can be done for years. Instead, much more can be achieved – simply stopping the country
According to the analyst, the consequences of a diesel fuel shortage will be much more significant than a gasoline shortage.
All industry runs on diesel. Mining dump trucks, locomotives on non-electrified sections, ships, trucks, construction equipment – all of this is diesel. If its production is stopped, literally everything stops. Not because motorists will stop driving. Putin doesn't care about them. But because industry will stop working, components, goods, and products will not be delivered. Transport, production, and logistics will stop. This is precisely what the paralysis of the state means
"The order from the Kremlin will not be able to be executed"
At the end of the conversation, UNN asked whether the Russian elites could convince Vladimir Putin to stop the war. Shyriaiev believes that one should not rely on the internal political factor.
Someone, of course, can convey information to him. But I would not build a strategy on such hope. It is much more important to ensure that orders from the Kremlin simply stop being carried out. So that in response to a command, a message arrives: it is impossible to execute because there is no fuel, the equipment has not left, logistics are not working. This is the real path to ending the war