Even if humanity achieves the ambitious goal and stops global warming at the 1.5°C mark, sea levels will continue to rise. Potentially, in a few centuries, it will become several meters deeper. Scientists warn that in order to at least slow down this process, it will be necessary to lower the temperature below current levels. This is reported by UNN with reference to NewsCientist.
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The idea that 1.5 degrees of warming will somehow solve this problem is misleading
New research and satellite observations show that even if global warming is limited to the Paris Agreement's target of 1.5°C, the world will not avoid a rapid rise in sea levels. According to the latest data, glaciers are melting much faster than expected, and the situation has already gone beyond the point where everything can be stopped simply by stabilizing the temperature.
I think there is sometimes a misunderstanding that 1.5°C will mean that all our problems will disappear. This should definitely be our goal, but it will in no way slow down or stop the rise in sea levels due to melting ice sheets.
A team of researchers, including Stokes, Jonathan Bamber from the University of Bristol and others, analyzed three main sources of data: satellite observations of ice melting, paleoclimatic data from the past millions of years, and computer modeling. Greenland and West Antarctica are already losing ice, and this dynamic is only accelerating.
Observations show a completely different picture. Some of the mass losses we have observed in Greenland have been truly impressive, truly unprecedented compared to what the models predicted.
And all this is happening with warming of only 1.2 degrees
Why is this dangerous
Bamber adds that if the current warming trajectory (approximately 2.9°C by the end of the century) continues, it could mean the complete loss of large glaciers.
So, when it comes to the long term, this is a sea level rise of more than 12 meters
According to research, in order to slow down this process to a controlled level, global warming will have to be reduced to approximately +1°C — that is, below current levels. And even this does not guarantee stability.
The ability to withstand the effects of climate change will be uneven
High-income countries will still be able to protect their coastlines, although it will become increasingly expensive. But there are many countries that simply cannot afford it.
That is why scientists insist on action now
Every fraction of a degree really matters to ice sheets. Yes, tipping points may exist, but sometimes they distract from the simple fact: every ten-thousandth of a degree of warming is another step towards disaster