Reports regarding the construction of a continuous line of defense from the Kyiv Reservoir to Sumy do not indicate an imminent Russian offensive from the north. This is primarily about Ukraine's long-term preparation for a protracted war and the strengthening of border defense directions. This opinion was expressed by military expert Oleksandr Kovalenko in an exclusive comment to UNN.
According to him, the fortification of the border should have become systematic work as early as 2022, as the war with the Russian Federation will not end quickly, and threats may arise for years to come.
Defense is needed regardless of the enemy's plans
The expert noted that all regions bordering Russia or Belarus, as well as regions near the front, must constantly prepare for defense. This is not only about building fortifications but also about creating prepared lines for the future.
The war with the Russian Federation is a long-term process. It will not end tomorrow or the day after. Unfortunately, we will continue to observe it for the coming years. And our ability to stop the enemy and achieve victory depends on how ready we are for defense at every level
He emphasized that the construction of a defensive line should not be perceived as a signal for panic.
This is not a reason for fear. This is something Ukraine should have been preparing for since 2022. Even despite our counter-offensive actions and successes, defense should have always been considered
Is there a threat of a major offensive from the north
In Kovalenko's opinion, Russia currently does not have sufficient resources for a large-scale operation from the direction of Belarus or the border regions of the Russian Federation.
On the territory of Belarus today, there is no strike grouping of Russian troops that could pose a threat to the north of Ukraine, as was the case in 2022. Similarly, there is no such potential from the Bryansk, Belgorod, or Kursk regions
According to the expert, the current threat consists mainly of sabotage and raiding activities in the border zone.
We are talking about tactical sabotage, raid attempts, and attacks on border settlements. But Russia currently lacks the resources for a breakthrough of 30, 50, or 100 kilometers
Belarus is already involved in the war
Commenting on the possible role of the Lukashenko regime, the expert stated that Belarus has effectively been participating in the war since the beginning of the full-scale invasion.
Kovalenko believes that Russia may use Belarusian territory not so much for a new march on Kyiv, but for other pressure scenarios.
These could be raiding actions along the border, the seizure of individual border villages, or the creation of a so-called "buffer zone." It could also involve the placement of launch sites for "Shaheds," other drones, or "Iskander-M" systems for strikes against Ukraine
Ukraine must act proactively
The expert emphasized that reacting only after a threat arises is a belated scenario, which is why fortifications are being built in advance.
It is much better to prepare in advance, to have a foundation of defense, lines, trained personnel, and staff. Only then can one react quickly to any threats
He also added that if missile or drone strikes begin again from the territory of Belarus, Ukraine may react harshly.
If another ballistic missile is launched from Belarus or there is a raid by kamikaze drones, then, undoubtedly, there will be a response against the territory of Belarus. We will not engage in pathos or demonstrations – we will strike back
The CCD also refuted the threat of an offensive on Kyiv
The head of the Center for Countering Disinformation, Andriy Kovalenko, noted that there is currently no threat of an offensive on the capital.
There is no threat of an offensive on Kyiv; one should not manipulate words about defense lines mentioned by the military, because they must exist. But this does not mean that the enemy has the forces to attack the capital here and now
Nothing will happen suddenly - Budanov on threats to Ukraine from Belarus23.04.26, 15:32