The world could break a temperature record as early as 2030. This was warned by the UN World Meteorological Organization in a new report; in a report prepared by the World Meteorological Organization, UNN writes with reference to The Guardian.
Details
According to the WMO forecast, there is an 86% probability that at least one year in the period from 2026 to 2030 will be hotter than 2024, which is currently considered the warmest in history. Experts also predict a 75% probability that the average temperature in 2026–2030 will be more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
Additionally, global temperatures may be affected by the El Niño phenomenon. It is expected at the end of 2026. Because of this, 2027 could become a new record-hot year. The lead author of the WMO report, Dr. Leon Hermanson, noted that the predicted El Niño increases the risk of a new temperature record.
"El Niño is predicted for the end of 2026, which increases the likelihood that the following year, 2027, will be a new record-hot year,"
Why carbon dioxide emissions are rising and how it is affecting the climate right now
The report also notes that carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels continue to rise. As a result, more heat accumulates in the atmosphere, and extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and intense. This includes, in particular, heatwaves, droughts, storms, and floods.
UN climate chief Simon Stiell stated that the latest heatwave in Europe shows how tangible the consequences of the climate crisis already are.
"The latest heatwave in Europe is a stark reminder of the rapidly intensifying impacts of the climate crisis — for both people and the economy. Many other parts of the world are also taking a serious hit, including India and other regions of Asia,"
According to Stiell, countries must reduce their dependence on fossil fuels faster to protect people, businesses, and economies from the effects of extreme heat.
"Protecting human lives, businesses, and economies from extreme heat and many other rapidly rising costs associated with climate change is a key task for every country. And it begins with a much faster phase-out of dependence on fossil fuels,"
Global warming: context and main risks
Scientists warn that warming of more than 1.5°C increases the risk of more severe heatwaves, droughts, storms, and floods. It also makes it harder for cities and communities to adapt to new climate conditions.
The Paris Climate Agreement aims to limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C compared to pre-industrial levels. However, the report notes that achieving this goal is now unlikely.
At the same time, the goal of keeping warming within 2°C remains achievable if countries act quickly. According to WMO estimates, the probability that any year in 2026–2030 will exceed the 2°C mark is less than 1%.
Separately, the report discusses the Arctic. According to the forecast, the next five winters in the region will be 2.8°C warmer than recent averages. This means the Arctic is warming significantly faster than the planet as a whole.
The WMO also predicts changes in precipitation. In May-September over the next five years, northern Europe, the Sahel, Alaska, and Siberia may be wetter than usual.
Recall
An unprecedented heatwave has swept across much of Europe and, according to French meteorologists, will already go down in the history of meteorological observations. Temperatures in some regions of France are approaching 39°C, while the neighboring United Kingdom is recording record-breaking figures for May.