Russia currently does not have a sufficient grouping on the territory of Belarus for a large-scale offensive on Kyiv or an attempt to occupy the Ukrainian capital; for this, Moscow would have to accumulate at least 100,000 troops, and the preparation process itself would take several months and would not go unnoticed. At the same time, the Russians may use the Belarusian direction for sabotage and border provocations. Military expert Oleksandr Kovalenko stated this in an exclusive comment to UNN.
Is Russia ready for a new offensive from Belarus
After the statements of the President of Ukraine regarding the potential threat of a new offensive from the territory of Belarus, the topic is once again in the spotlight. According to Oleksandr Kovalenko, as of today, Russia does not have enough forces to conduct a major operation against Kyiv, but the threat of local provocations and raid actions remains real.
Everything depends on exactly what kind of grouping Russia tries to use for a strike on Kyiv and what tasks will be set for it. As of today, there are no such forces and means on the territory of Belarus that would allow for a large-scale offensive operation of an operational-tactical or strategic level. We are talking about the possibility of a repeated offensive on Kyiv, attempts to encircle it, or even occupation. For this, Russia would need a significantly larger resource than what it currently has in Belarus
According to him, the current Russian military presence in Belarus mainly consists of an aviation component rather than strike ground forces.
There is aviation there, but there are no full-fledged assault or offensive units. In Belarus itself, the ground forces consist of approximately 14,000 more or less conditionally combat-ready personnel. This is not enough for a serious offensive operation. But for sabotage, raid actions in the border zone, or hybrid provocations – there are forces. We see how the Russians act in the Sumy region and the Kharkiv region, when they try to literally gnaw away at border villages. Similar actions are possible from the side of Belarus as well
How many troops Russia needs for a march on Kyiv
Separately, Kovalenko recalled what forces Russia used to attack Kyiv in 2022. At that time, according to him, elite units participated in the offensive, whereas now the Russian army has significantly degraded.
In 2022, about 40,000 fully combat-ready, professional military personnel attacked Kyiv from the territory of Belarus. These were elite units of the marines, airborne forces, and special forces. They were supplied, trained, and equipped. But even this resource was not enough to capture the capital
According to the expert, the current Russian army is already a completely different level of training and quality of personnel.
Now the core of the Russian army consists of the so-called "chmobiks" – untrained, low-motivated human resources. Therefore, for a repeated offensive on Kyiv, they will need at least 100,000 troops. And that is just to reach the outskirts of the capital and begin combat operations there. But even 100,000 might not be enough
He cited the example of the situation in the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad direction, where Russia has concentrated the largest grouping on the entire front.
We see how the Russians have concentrated about 170,000 troops in the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad direction. And even with such a resource, they have been unable to achieve a strategic breakthrough for months. And here we are talking about Kyiv – a city that cannot even be compared to Pokrovsk. Therefore, 100,000 is the minimum
Can Russia covertly prepare an offensive
According to the expert, even if the Kremlin decides to form a new strike grouping in Belarus, it will not be possible to do so quickly and unnoticed.
To accumulate at least 100,000 troops, Russia will need approximately two months – and that is provided there is very fast and coordinated work. But I don't think the modern Russian army is capable of acting that effectively. Therefore, this process may take two to three months or even more
He also emphasized that hiding such a concentration of troops is practically impossible.
Forming such a grouping unnoticed is unrealistic. These are huge movements of equipment, personnel, and logistics. All of this will be recorded by intelligence
Will a large-scale mobilization in Russia change the situation
Separately, Kovalenko commented on the discussions regarding the possibility of a major mobilization in Russia. According to him, even a sharp increase in the size of the army will not give Moscow the opportunity to carry out a strategic breakthrough.
Mass mobilization will not give Russia the opportunity to solve global military tasks. It will only allow for the dragging out of the war and the process of mutual exhaustion. Yes, they may advance somewhere, capture more territories than now. But this will not be a solution to tasks of an operational-tactical or strategic level
According to the expert, even in the event of a new wave of mobilization, there is no talk of capturing large Ukrainian cities or regions.
There is no talk of capturing regional centers, the complete capture of the Donetsk or Zaporizhzhia regions, crossing the Dnipro, or "Kherson 2.0". This will not happen. The maximum is the dragging out of the war and attempts at slow pressure along the front line in 2026–2027
In his opinion, Russian potential will only be exhausted in the long term.
Over the next two to three years, Russia will physically not be able to achieve serious military gains. On the contrary – its potential and the effectiveness of offensive operations will gradually decrease
Lukashenko announced a targeted mobilization of Belarusians to prepare for war12.05.26, 18:30